分类目录归档:Trading

想盈利,该怎么亏?

(Photo By www.adactushousing.co.uk)

我真的很感激那些连续出现的小亏损。正是这些令人讨厌的小亏损,把那些比我更聪明的交易者挡在了获利的门外。 ——金融帝国

真正理解“盈亏同源”,是交易员盈利的前提。有些时候,盈亏不仅同源,甚至同体。见过很多交易系统,回测的时候命中率可以达到90%以上,在高命中率的前提下,还可以拥有整体2:1以上的盈亏比。无一例外,这些系统一旦付诸实盘,都是亏损的。——否则,全世界的钱都被一个人赚走了,市场就不是市场了。

亏损的原因林林总总,有些是回测主观系统的时候不经意从右往左看,开启了上帝视角;有些是不知不觉间采用了“未来函数”;还有一些,则是回测时间过短,没有经历完整的“高波动-低波动”周期。这些都是导致纸面盈利的交易系统亏损的原因。

稳定盈利的交易系统可遇不可求。如果说开发一个系统常常是“大胆假设,小心求证”的话,这里的“假设”实际上是大量显性和隐性思考的结果。瞎猫撞到死耗子的可能性不能说没有,但非常小。这种思考要持续、专注,一以贯之,才有当头棒喝般的顿悟。

这个思考的过程,其着力点应该在如何亏损上。一个稳定盈利的交易系统,必须要有明确、清晰的亏损要素。

具体来说:

  • 第一,单笔交易层面,必须有不少于1/3的交易亏损。亏损的本质是释放风险。因此,稳定盈利的交易系统中,单笔亏损交易的量必须要有保障。一个胜率过高的交易系统,意味着巨大的崩盘风险。典型的例子是A股市场的“死扛”策略,单纯看胜率,会非常高,其中毫无风险释放的渠道,这种策略是不可取的。小额的亏损在少量付出金钱的同时,本质上是释放风险。交易系统要想稳定盈利,这个环节是不能少的。从经验上看,高于70%的胜率往往会偏向于“刮头皮”,风险释放渠道是不够的,对技艺的要求也更高。因此,一个好驾驭的交易系统,其中的单笔亏损比例不应该低于1/3。
  • 第二,整体绩效层面,必须要出现3次到5次以上的连续亏损。除了通过单笔亏损释放单笔交易的风险,交易系统还必须有连续的亏损,用来释放系统性风险。这里有四重含义:
    • 首先,如果没有连续的亏损,一个正常的(不过高的)胜率就无从保证。这个不多说。
    • 其次,没有连续的亏损,就必然没有连续的盈利,整个交易系统就没有创造“上台阶”交易的可能,交易系统的盈利能力就要被打个问号了。
    • 第三,如果没有连续的亏损,交易系统的门槛就不存在了。这里举个例子,长期以来A股市场“打新”全凭手气,基本没有风险,因此打新市场里聚集了大量不参与投机交易的低风险爱好者,“打新”这个策略,注定也就是低风险、低收益了。
    • 第四,只有存在连续的亏损,交易者才有施展价值的舞台。控制亏损的频率、幅度是可以节约风险利润,是盈利的重要来源。交易系统只有存在连续亏损的基础,交易者才有施展的舞台。以双均线系统举例,改善双均线系统的一个重要方法就是通过通道(动态的、静态的)过滤掉发生亏损的交叉点。这个过滤的过程,就是交易者的工作。没有这个工作,交易者就成了下单员,交易的趣味将大打折扣。
  • 第三,系统开发层面,必须要因为思考交易系统亏欠自己的兴趣、爱好、习惯。除了数字上的亏损,还有一种亏损是必须的,那就是开发系统的成本必须对交易者的兴趣、爱好、习惯造成了挤占。交易系统稳定盈利,生活上的“亏欠”也是必要的环节。还是分几个层面说:
    • 字面上的稳定盈利本身就很难。人无风趣官多贵,容易走的都是下坡路。舒舒服服拍脑袋也可以创造交易系统,但你放心,这种交易系统要么过不了回测关,要么过不了实盘关。
    • 交易者和交易系统需要磨合的过程才能经历实盘的考验。交易者熟练驾驭自己开发的交易系统,才能摆脱犹豫、迟疑、拿不住单子等等负面的状态。开发的过程中,交易者会切身体会彷徨、怀疑、绝望等情绪,进而经历一番涅槃,交易系统才能向钢铁侠的盔甲一样,与交易者合而为一。这个锤炼的过程如切如磋,如琢如磨。“切、磋、琢、磨”,哪个字都不舒服。

可见:

  • 所谓“稳定盈利”,就是持续地、可控地亏损。——没有持续的亏损作为门槛,交易的盈利就会被无限摊薄;没有可控的亏损,交易的盈利就会被无限回吐。
  • 所谓“持续进步”,就是持续地、可控的亏欠自己。——没有持续的亏欠,心神就会随波逐流,难以专注,无法提升;没有可控的亏欠,生活就会失去平衡,交易者也要走火入魔。

盈亏同源,重点在亏。就像做贼,既要会吃肉,也要会挨打,重点在会挨打。
把握这个度很难。交易是一场修行,就像人生是一场修行。每位交易者都永远在路上。

EOF

以下是早期关于“亏损”这个主题的链接:

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本文链接地址: https://kangjian.net/blog/1729/

关于“量、价、时、空”的一点思考

“量、价、时、空”是交易中最基础的四个要素。

以这四个要素作为框架,很多常见的交易要素可以各归其位。如:

    • 放量、缩量、无量
    • 均量
    • 力度指数
    • Price Action理论
    • 均线
    • 支撑阻力位
    • MACD、RSI、KDJ
    • BOLL、通道理论
    • “横有多长,竖有多高”
    • 缠论
    • 均线
    • 波浪理论
    • 盈亏比
    • 支撑阻力位
    • 缠论
    • 波浪理论

以上的划分并不周延,只是个大概的归类。从这个归类中,可以大致看出单个模型的局限所在。比如:

  • MACD、RSI、KDJ、BOLL等指标及其“共振”——这些指标关注的点各自不同,但核心都是一个:价格。用价格形成指标,进而互相验证,难免循环论证。这也是 Price Action 理论强调少用指标的逻辑基础。
  • 均线理论——以价格的均值为基础,考虑了时间因素。均线理论缺乏成交量、空间的因素,因而一般要结合“放量、缩量”操作,同时常用趋势跟踪技术主动弱化空间因素的权重。
  • Price Action——以价格形态为核心,“读取”、“倾听”市场的声音。PA理论大量应用于外汇市场,常常没有准确的“量”的因素。同时, Price Action 理论往往对时空因素采取相对模糊的应用,时空要素往往需要主观判断(时空方面,国内交易员曾有“大象吃苹果”等精彩的主观判断方法)。
  • 缠论——缠论与 Price Action 的着力点恰恰是互补的关系。缠论的价格因素主要是以“分型、笔、线段”的形式呈现,对价格的小级别波动并不是十分关注。结合中枢、级别等理论、将时空因素纳入。
  • 波浪理论——重在时空关系,价格因素在波浪理论中类似缠论,应用得比较粗糙。考虑时空因素过于主观,“千人千浪”。

以上,可以看出,相对体系化的框架,如 Price Action、缠论、波浪理论,或多或少都要照顾到四个要素。而 MACD 等指标,由于在要素层级存在自身的局限,则很难构成交易系统的基础。均线理论应用于实战,往往不能简单的“金叉死叉”,要结合K线形态(Price Action,“价”)、和成交量的变化相互验证,提升绩效。即使如此,均线理论在时空因素的把握上往往也要采取趋势跟踪策略主动“放弃”。

“量、价、时、空”四者之间的有效结合、匹配,进而寻找共振,可以有效提高胜率。

对交易员来讲,有必要从这四个角度重新审视自己的交易系统,是否在某些方面存在缺陷。简单设计一个打分卡:

  • 量:明确?涉及?空白?
  • 价:明确?涉及?空白?
  • 时:明确?涉及?空白?
  • 空:明确?涉及?空白?

一个成熟稳定的交易系统,也许有这些关注点:

  • 四个要素中最好不要出现“空白”(外汇交易中的“量”除外);
  • 四个要素都是“明确”的时候,往往可以将交易系统程序化了;
  • 交易员的价值,恰恰在于对“涉及”这种状态的把握;
  • 四个要素全部是“涉及”,交易员往往会比较累,交易绩效对于身体、心理的状态要求也比较高;
  • 直觉上,有两个以上“明确”,一到两个“涉及”,似乎比较容易操作。

当然,千人千面,每个人都有自己舒服的状态,不能一概而论。交易的核心还是心态控制和资金管理,技术分析终究只是交易的皮毛,过分沉溺,难免皮相。

EOF

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价值投资中的回撤入场


(Image By ChartSecret.com)

Price Action 理论中,除了极少数的情况,入场基本都要在回撤的时候。所谓“顺大势,逆小势”、“突破回踩”,都是回撤入场。

对比一下 Elder 对基本面分析的解读:

当我认为未来某个事件会增加一只股票的价值,而目前价格又低于价值时,我才会考虑买入。在价值之下买入,在价值之上卖出并有清晰的逻辑,这样做才能让我在逆境时坚定信心。(《以交易为生2》,CH1)

这段话包含两个意思:

  1. 入场(做多)的主要原因是看涨。未来的价值会增加,所以现在准备做多。这是最基本的原因。
  2. 当前的价格要低于价值。把未来的走势遮住不看,现在的价格要低于现在的价值。这是第二个原因。

第一个比较好理解。未来看涨,任何一个价值投资者的基本范式都是这个。第二个比较容易被忽略。

目前价格又低于价值时,我才会考虑买入”。价格低于价值,即价格被低估。在 Elder 眼中看来,即使是价值投资,也要重视买点。当下的价格被低估的时候,才是价值投资者的买点。很多时候,“价值投资”亏钱,往往是方向看对了,入场点没找好。高估时入场,长时间被套。事后一看,其实大方向是对的。

——这就是价值投资的“回撤入场”:

  • 方向顺大势:价值在未来看涨
  • 入场逆小势:当下的价格被低估

当然,典型的回撤入场往往还要重视扳机点,没有扳机的枪不会响。基本面分析时,扳机点可能就是一个短期看衰时的利好新闻、一个回撤中的放量大阳线等等,这些都可以。价值投资毕竟周期更长,精度上的要求可以放松一些。

总结一下,价值投资回撤入场的关键:当下价值被低估。无低估,不做多。

EOF.

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两个标准,看看你是如何看待价格的?

(Photo By Teddy Kelley)

(Photo By Teddy Kelley)

Van Tharp 在 “Definitive Guide to Position Sizing” 中举了一个例子,说明了资金管理对防范黑天鹅事件的意义。原文出现在讲授风险回报比的内容中,讲得比较简单,有必要单独拿出来看一下。

这段原文如下:

You buy a stock at $60 and plan to get out if it drops to $55. However, when it goes that low, you don’t sell. Instead, you just stop looking at it and hope it will go back up. It doesn’t. It becomes part of the headline business news involving corporate scandal and eventually the stock becomes worthless. What’s your loss as an R-multiple? By the way, this perfectly describes the situation with Enron, WorldCom, or any number of other companies that have gone bankrupt over the years. There were plenty of signs to get out of those stocks before any corporate scandal broke out.

简单翻译一下:

你在60美元的价位买入,计划在价格下跌到55美元的时候止损出场。但是,当价格到了55美元的时候,你不仅没有卖出,反而捂住了眼睛,希望价格自己涨回来。然而并没有。一桩头条新闻报道了公司的丑闻,最终股票变得一文不值。你的风险回报比是多少?顺便提一句,这种情形完美描述了安然事件、世通事件,还有这些年林林总总的因丑闻而倒下的公司。在这些公司的丑闻爆发之前,他们的股票往往会提前透露出大量的信号。

为什么价格会提前透露基本面的信息呢?

首先,市场的价格是所有参与者价值观的综合反映。在一个成交量足够的品种上(某个商品合约、某个个股、某个货币对),价格就是市场的均衡,综合反映了当前市场的整体看法。反之,如果价格出现了反常的变化,不是因为别的,恰恰是市场的整体看法出现了反常的扭曲。市场中的一部分人对标的品种的看法变了,所以供需变了。这种变化之所以看起来“反常”,只不过是因为暂时还没有被大多数人理解。这个时候又可以分成两种情况来看:第一种情况,内幕人、聪明人先于市场知道了一些信息,供需短期失衡源于这些人,这些信息逐渐扩散,“反常”逐渐为普罗大宗所知悉。第二种情况,错误的信息引发了市场的恐慌,当错误被证伪,市场会自我纠正,价格也会迅速回归正常。因此,如果反常的价格变化没有被迅速纠正,也许就是有人已经“趁着天没亮抢先出发了”。所谓“反常”,就是指这个——除非都没下船,或者都没上车,有反常,多半是出现了先行者。

其次,绝对正确的价值观并不存在。天行有常,不为尧存,不为桀亡。市场运行有其自身的规律和形态,不会被任何力量所左右。每一个对反常信号视而不见的交易者,内心往往都预设了一个别样的标准。为什么视而不见,甚至闭上眼睛不愿看见呢?是因为价格运行的方向和这个标准不一致。说到底,这是个谁服从谁的问题——究竟是交易者的判断要服从于市场,还是市场的走势要服从于交易者个人呢?如果这么说,问题看起来很简单。真正困难的是,这个预设的标准往往深深地埋在了潜意识里。交易者要想把它挖出来晒一晒太阳,需要比较深的自省功夫。这是最大的难点。

那么,怎么办呢?用一大一小两个标准自我检验一下。需要加粗的是,这只是两个判断的标准,并不是什么标准答案——这就是一横一竖两个数轴,把人群划分为四个象限而已,谁也不比谁高尚——看完了两个问题拿不准的,没关系,可以暂时骑在数轴上休息。这都可以。

  • 大的。你是否认同,没有什么能左右市场“大命题”)?这个市场是个宏观的市场,不仅仅是某个交易所、某个地理区域,可以把它理解为整个世界,它包含政府、交易所、大庄家、小散户。你是否认同,没有任何一家机构、一个政府、一个团体、一间公司、一个个人,能够从根本上控制市场的运行?放在现在的背景,举个例子,比如北京的房价,如果说从市场的角度讲,超指数增长不可持续是市场的一个基本特征,你认为能否有一个机构、一个团体能够改变这个命题(超指数增长不可持续)呢?如果你认为有(某个主体能改变“大命题”),那么你就并不认同这个命题。如果认为没有(某个主体能改变“大命题”),那么你自然就认同这个命题。
  • 小的。你是否能做到,扔掉自己的预设观点,做一个没有立场的交易者。“小命题”)?这个标准可以用逻辑解构一下。买盘卖盘的结合处,我们叫“成交价”。(变动的)价格意味着(变动的)均衡。价格的波动意味着均衡的变化。两次均衡的点位有差距,意味着有利润(当然,做反了就是亏损)。你能扔掉自己的观点,做一个没有立场的交易者,一心跟随市场吗?如果你始终坚持自己的观点,不止损,拿着头寸,等待市场验证自己的观点。这没错,这是一个方法。如果你能扔掉自己的观点,甚至压根就没有自己的观点,所有的入场依据都是基于价格的运动,自然需要市场走势去验证自己之前对于市场的猜测。对了就拿着,错了就止损。这也没错,是另一个思路。

两个标准说完,每个象限都没错。如果两个标准都认同,答案都是Yes,再回过头看看 Van Tharp 的这句话:

There were plenty of signs to get out of those stocks before any corporate scandal broke out.

——应该会更好理解一些。

P.S. 有必要再次强调的是,我并不是提倡技术分析原教旨主义。上述的两个标准划分出的四个象限,都是正确的。

2016-12-20

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本文链接地址: https://kangjian.net/blog/1716/

交易员的生存之道

(Photo By Daryn Bartlett)

交易员的交易系统与计算机的量化策略之间存在着根本的不同。一个成熟的主观交易系统应该由三个部分组成:量化依据、筛选标准和哲学基础

  • 量化依据。量化依据是指一个交易系统中具体信号的特征、入场点、出场点、头寸大小的计算方式。无论是高频交易还是主观交易系统,“量化”都是共同的特征。量化是对抗情绪最有力的防护网,是任何交易员上场前必须佩戴的护具。即使是主观分时图交易,“满仓、半仓、四分之一仓”这种笼统的表述事实上也是一种量化。系统要求满仓半仓开仓,就不能因为恐惧、犹豫而缩小头寸。
  • 筛选标准。筛选标准是过滤掉无效信号的必备品。任何一个交易系统都需要筛选。有些标准,主观交易和机器交易共同使用。根据形态,可以判断趋势还是震荡;根据均线,可以判断顺势还是逆势;根据价格波动的时间跨度、点位幅度,可以判断是否已经超买超卖;根据影线长短、实体大小、趋势角度,可以识别价格运动的强弱——这些机器也可以做到,但有些标准,目前机器交易还很难涉足,这其中最典型的因素就是基本面。做交易,终极路径还是基本面和技术面的合二为一。基本面发现了大级别的供需失衡,技术分析予以验证,进而找出具体的买卖点,这是提升胜率和回报比的终南之道。
  • 哲学基础。只要世界还是由人来主宰,市场就依然是由人构成的。即使是量化、高频交易,策略的背后也是制定策略的人。有人在,市场中就会有些不变的东西。交易员的交易系统必须在哲学层面找到落脚的依据,交易系统才能站稳,才能长期稳定盈利。没有哲学基础的交易系统,只是对历史数据优化后的“刻舟求剑”,注定不会长期有效。交易中的哲学基础往往植根于人性,一般都比较朴素。比如,市场做同一个事情尝试两次都失败了,价格反方向运动的概率就会比50%略有上升;比如,市场价格无论高低,总是在高波动性和低波动性之间运行;比如,马太效应,自我强化,反身性理论(趋势会延续,而延续本身又会强化趋势);比如,否定之否定(失败的失败——突破失败,回撤,回撤失败,趋势延续——Pullback入场信号);比如,未来无法预测(趋势跟踪技术,止盈不止损)。大道至简,凡是长期有效的交易系统,都是可以找到哲学基础的。这一点,据我所知,目前还没有机器可以理解,计算机的深度学习似乎也无法做到。

三个部分中,前面一个半机器可以做到,甚至可以比人做得更好,后面一个半机器目前还无法实现。机器无法深度参与筛选标准中的基本面配合,这个好理解。为什么说量化策略很难涉足哲学基础呢?有些量化交易策略确实具备哲学基础,但每天执行这些策略的计算机并不理解它,掌握哲学基础的依然是计算机背后的人,而人又基本不会代替计算机下单,往往只在策略疑似失效时才会予以干预。而交易员的价值就在于对一个个信号进行取舍,进场或者放弃,加量还是减量。这个角度看,交易员依然是不可取代的,Trading这个手艺也将长期存在。 当然,这将将非常残酷。大量炒单、超短线的交易手法将逐渐被机器所取代,稳定盈利难度越来越大,大量手工机械交易员将被市场淘汰。交易员群体将面临一次剧烈的新陈代谢。低频交易、基本面交易将是人类交易员最后的高地。能够通过刻苦攀登登上高地的交易员,面对充斥着大量计算机交易员的市场,将会重新获得独特的竞争优势。 这个独特的优势就是:犯错。是的,人类会犯错,计算机不会。犯错是人类交易员最后的核心优势。《浪潮之巅》的作者吴军有一个观点,人类一些区别于动物的主要能力,比如语言、逻辑、感情,源自于进化过程中的基因复制“错误”。一种极小概率的错误可能是让某种能力变强,比如语言这个能力,就是在基因“抄书”的过程中抄错而产生的。猴子进化成人,就是不断犯错的过程。计算机最大的优点在于不会犯错。不会犯错,计算机永远不会进化成人,猴子也将永远是猴子。 人类交易员并不用灰心。未来是不可知的,是不可预测的,一切量化策略的系统回测都只是对过去的归纳,而不是对未来的把握。计算机的隐喻就是追求尽可能高的胜率、尽可能高的回报比,以及在此之上尽可能高的交易频率。人类交易员的高地则在于犯错,在于试错和自我纠正。我们永远不知道价格未来将如何运行,因此一切策略本质上都是猜测。我们可能对了,可能错了,我们真正的优势就在于承认错误,进而纠正错误——正确的时候正确下去,错误的时候纠正错误——这恰恰暗合了趋势交易中“截断亏损,让利润奔跑”的古谚。这也是人类交易员的核心优势。 关注的重点有两个:

  • 从基本面的供需失衡入手,重点关注大的供需失衡,大的资源错配。计算机策略很难有效涉足基本面的大机会,这是人类投研团队的强项。
  • 从长周期入手。日线以内的价格波动更多来自于情绪变化,很少反映供需失衡,这各领域也恰恰是计算机的优势。长周期对应供需,在世界彻底物联网化之前,还是人类独占的领地。

恐惧来自于不确定。对未来的恐惧是人类进步永恒的主题。学会犯错,学会学习,学会纠错,交易员要相信,利润就在止损之中。记住这句古语: 善败者不亡。

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确认趋势的3个“傻瓜”策略【译文】

作者:Nial Fuller 原文:via

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作为Price Action的交易者,最重要的事就是区分市场是不是处于趋势之中。是否进场取决于此,搞懂如何去区别趋势和区间就是一个非常严肃的问题了。

如果你最近曾经为这个问题费过心思,或者你是一个交易新手,今天的内容就是给你设计的。读过下面的文字,你应该会感觉到更清楚一些——如何把趋势从无序的市场中找出来。

找Price Action的架构

第一个策略已经矗立在市场中数百年了,从未失灵,常谈常新。

我最喜欢用这个方法去区分趋势市场——从Price Action的视角简单看一下市场。非常简单,我就找一个重复的形态:上升趋势中的更高的高点(Higher Highs ,HH)和更高的低点(Higher Lows,HL),和下降趋势中的更低的高点(Lower Highs ,LH)和更低的低点(Lower Lows ,LL)。

下面是一个典型案例。这是一个典型的下降趋势,其中包括了很多重复的更低的高点(LH)和更低的低点(LL)……

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下面是一个典型案例。这是一个典型的上升趋势,其中包括了很多重复的更高的高点(HH)和更高的低点(HL)……

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请注意:我经常收到邮件问我,怎样知道一个新的趋势已经开始了,一个旧的趋势已经结束了。用我刚刚提到的办法就行,找到HH、HL、LH、LL这几个点就好了。举例,一旦你看到了一组HH和HL点被打断或破坏了,市场出现了一个更低的高点(LH),这就是个早期的信号,提醒你上升趋势将结束了。

讲真,如果说一个上升趋势结束了,一个新的下降趋势产生了,我们还需要在前面的上升趋势后面至少找到一组LH和LL点。也就是说,一旦市场运行出现了第一个更低的高点(即失败的新高),接着我们需要看到这个更低的高点后面出现一个更低的低点(LH)。这时候,我们就可以找机会入场放空了。

找平行线

我们还可以通过关键位置的支撑阻力位来区分市场是否处于趋势之中。最基本的方法是简单地看一眼,看看能不能找到上下两条水平线之间清晰地震荡。如果存在平行位置之间的反复震荡,这就是一个区间震荡中的市场,否则市场就是处于趋势之中。

区间有两个基本类型:窄的和宽的。更多信息可以学习区间市场的文章。

下面的例子里,我们可以发现市场在支撑阻力位之间反复震荡。注意,这里的价格不必精确地击中关键位置,只要大概运行在两个支撑阻力关键位置之间,就不是趋势市场,而是宽幅震荡。

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移动均线

第三个区分趋势市场的方法是均线。均线能给新手们提供一个可视化的分析依据,实际使用中还需要与其他Price Action的策略合并判断才行。原因我们下面会说。

我主要看日线图,用8天和21天的指数移动平均线(EMAs)快速判断趋势。均线也能提供一个动态的支撑阻力区域。

使用均线区分趋势市场要注意两个基本要点。一是均线的交叉方向,是金叉还是死叉?我只用均线的交叉用于判断方向,而不用传统意义上的“移动均线交叉入场”。

二是两根均线的分叉是否越来越大,这往往是趋势强弱的指示。当然了,这也需要结合前面介绍的Price Action的策略,毕竟仅仅依靠均线,在宽幅震荡中可能会释放出假信号。均线更适合作为判断趋势方向的快速参考,再有就是分析一下买和卖的大概的支撑阻力。

均线组合在图上可以画出一条动态的移动支撑阻力区域、分层。均线的分层在两条均线之间,比如“8日线和21日线之间的分层”。我们可以在某个分层中寻找Price Action的信号,入场后用这个均线分层跟踪趋势。

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宽幅震荡的区间市场中使用移动均线时,要格外小心假信号。这也是为什么我们之前反复强调,要用Price Action方法作为“过滤器”,来筛选均线信号。

举例来说,前面第二点提到的宽幅震荡市场中,如果你放了一组均线,两根均线很可能出现反复交叉,这期间价格也在支撑阻力位之间反复震荡。如果你跟着均线在震荡市中操作,价格上上下下,均线反复交叉,你将持续的反复挨耳光。从这个角度考虑,我更倾向于用上面说的第一点判断趋势。当然,均线策略是策略1非常好的补充和验证依据,还可以提供一套好的“价值区域”参考,来指导趋势中的买卖操作。

结语

趋势是你的朋友。你一定希望在入场前,能够完全清晰地判断市场究竟是不是趋势。希望今天的内容能帮你界定如何区分趋势和震荡,加大你把握大趋势的把握。学习更多的趋势交易和区间交易知识,可以参考我们其他的内容。

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Al Brooks的78条交易指引

这78条提示,是Al Brooks三本书中反转篇的结尾。字字珠玑,照录如下。致敬Al Brooks。

  1. Reading these 570,000 words is like reading a detailed manual on how to do anything, such as playing golf or a violin. It takes a lot of hard work to turn the information into the ability to make a living as a trader, but it is impossible without understanding how markets work. Like being a professional golfer or violinist, no matter how good you get, you always want to be better, so the challenge and satisfaction last long after you become consistently profitable.

  2. Everything that you see is in a gray fog. Nothing is perfectly clear. Close is close enough. If something looks like a reliable pattern, it will likely trade like a reliable pattern.

  3. There is no easy set of reliable rules to make money as a trader, and everything is subjective. This is a zero-sum game with very smart players, so when an edge exists, it is small and fleeting. For a trader to make money, he has to be consistently better than half of the other traders out there (or more accurately, trade a positive trader’s equation more than half of the time). Since most of the competitors are profitable institutions, a trader has to be very good. However, edges appear constantly, and if you learn to spot them and understand how to trade them, you are in a position to make money.

  4. The edge can never get very large because institutions would take advantage of it as it was growing. A trade cannot have a high probability of making a big reward relative to the risk.

  5. Reading charts well is difficult, but it is only half of what you need to know to make money. You also need to learn to trade, which is just as difficult. Trading successfully always has been and will always continue to be hard to do, no matter what method you use. If there were an easy way to make money, everyone would do it and then there would be no trapped traders to drive the market to your target. Read a book that teaches you how to play the violin and then go out to see if the world will give you money to hear you play. Just because you understand how to do something does not mean that you can do it effectively, especially if it is difficult to do.

  6. A trader needs a mathematical advantage to make money. At every moment, there is always a mathematical edge for both a long and a short trade, but the edges are usually not clear. When they are relatively clear, they are fleeting and small. However, those are the times when traders need to place their trades.

  7. The ability to spot trades that have a positive trader’s equation is the key to success. That can mean buying above a bar on a stop, selling above a bar with a limit order, buying below a bar with a limit order, or selling below a bar on a stop.

  8. The single most important determination that a trader makes, and he makes this after the close of every bar, is whether there will be more buyers or sellers above and below the prior bar. This is particularly true with breakouts and failed breakouts, because the move that follows usually determines the always-in direction and therefore lasts for many points and is not just a scalp.

  9. Every time you buy above the high of the prior bar on a stop, someone else is shorting there with a limit order. When you sell one tick below the low of the prior bar, there is a strong bull who is taking the other side of your trade. Always remember that nothing is certain, and the edge is always small because there are smart people who believe the exact opposite of what you do.

  10. Every bar, even a strong trend bar, is a signal bar for both directions, and the market can begin a trend up or down on the next bar. Be open to all possibilities, including the exact opposite of what you expect, and when the surprise happens, don’t question or deny it. Just read it and trade it.

  11. Every time you look to enter a setup, make sure to consider what the market is telling you if instead it breaks out of the opposite end of the signal bar. Sometimes that buy setup that you see might in fact also be a great sell setup because it will trap longs who will cover below the low of the signal or entry bars.

  12. Understanding trend bars that create breakouts is one of the most important skills that a trader can acquire. Traders need to be able to assess whether a breakout is likely to succeed, or it will be met with profit taking and a pullback, or it will be followed by a reversal.

  13. Look for signs of strength and weakness and weigh them to determine if they give you an edge. If you see the market doing something, assess how strong the setup is. Did it fail to take an opportunity to do something strong? If so, the setup is weaker.

  14. Whenever you are positive that your setup is good, don’t take the trade. You are missing something. You don’t see what the person who is taking the other side of your trade is seeing, and that person is just as smart as you are. Be humble. If you are too confident, your arrogance will make you lose because you will be using unrealistically high probabilities in your evaluation of the trader’s equation.

  15. Much of life is not what it seems. In fact, the famous mathematician Charles Lutwidge Dodgson was not what he seemed to be and is better known as Lewis Carroll. We work in an Alice in Wonderland world where nothing is really as it seems. Up is not always up and down is not always down. Just look at most strong breakouts of trading ranges—they usually fail, and up is really the start of down and down is really just part of up. Also, 60 percent is 60 percent in only 90 percent of the cases and can be 90 percent sometimes and 10 percent at other times. If a good setup is 60 percent, how can you win 80 percent or more of the time? Well, in a pullback in a strong trend just above support, a setup might work 60 percent of the time, but if you can scale in as the market goes lower, especially if your subsequent entries are larger, you might find that you win in 80 percent or more of those 60 percent setups. Also, if you use a very wide stop and are willing to sit through a large drawdown for a couple of hours, that 60 percent chance of making two points before losing two points in the Emini might be a 90 percent chance of making four points before losing eight points. If you are flexible and comfortable with constantly changing probabilities and many probabilities coexisting, your chance of success is much greater.

  16. The single most important thing that you can do all day is talk yourself out of bad trades. For example, if it is a trading range day, don’t look to buy after a strong bull trend bar or a high 1 near the top of the range, and don’t look to short after a strong bear trend bar or low 1 near the bottom of the range.

  17. The market constantly exhibits inertia and tends to continue what it has just been doing. If it is in a trend, 80 percent of the attempts to reverse it will fail and lead to a flag and then a resumption of the trend. If it is in a trading range, 80 percent of the attempts to break out into a trend will fail.

  18. If ever you feel twisted inside because a pullback is going too far, you are likely mistakenly seeing a pullback when in fact the trend has reversed.

  19. If you think the market rationally should be going up, but instead it is offering you a strong sell setup, take it. Trade the trade that you have and not the one that you want or expect, because “the market can stay irrational much longer than you can stay solvent” (a quote attributed to John Maynard Keynes).

  20. Price is truth. Never argue with what the market is telling you. For a day trader, fundamentals are almost entirely useless. The market will tell you where it is going and it cannot hide what it is doing. Neither you nor the experts on television can know how the market will react to the fundamentals, although those experts often speak with certainty. Since the market is rarely more than 60 percent certain of anything, whenever pundits speak with certainty, they are ignoring math and therefore the most basic characteristic of the market. If you follow someone who is indifferent to or ignorant of how markets work, you will lose money.

  21. Everything makes sense. If you know how to read price action, nothing will surprise you, because you will understand what the market is doing. Beginners can see it on a printout at the end of the day. The goal is to learn how to read fast enough so that you can understand what is happening in real time.

  22. “It’s not fair!” If that is how you are feeling, take a break from trading. You are absolutely right—it is not fair, but that is because it is all based on mathematics, and fairness is never one of the variables. If you are concerned about fairness, you are not synchronized with the market. Computer programs control all market activity, and they have no concept of fairness; they never get tired, they don’t remember what their last trade was, and they are relentlessly objective. Since they are making money, you need to try to emulate their qualities. They cannot hide what they are doing, and your job is to see what they are doing and then copy them. Yes, you will enter after their first entry, but they will continue to enter after you do, and they are the force that will drive the market far enough to give you your profit.

  23. Price action is based on human behavior and therefore has a genetic basis. This is why it works in all markets in all countries and on all time frames and it has always worked and always will inescapably reflect human behavior, at least until we evolve into a new species.

  24. Always have a protective stop in the market because it protects you from the greatest danger you will ever face as a trader. That danger is not the market, which could not care less whether you win or lose, never knows that you exist, and is never out to get you. It is yourself, and all of your inadequacies as a trader, including denial, arrogance, and a lack of discipline.

  25. Thinking is very difficult. Losers prefer instead to look with religious zeal for a savior who will protect them from losing money. Saviors can be confident, impressive experts with outstanding credentials on TV, famous writers of newsletters, chat room leaders, indicators, or any other external idol into which traders infuse the power to protect them and take them to the Promised Land. Instead, they will all slowly suck the last dollar from your account. You will not make money until you do your own analysis and ignore all external influences that promise you success, but in fact exist only to make money for themselves and not you. The experts on TV hope to establish credibility that they can use to sell their services or get a promotion, the TV station makes money off commercials, the chat room and newsletter people sell their services, and the software company that gives you indicators does so for a fee. No one is going to help you in the long run, so never fool yourself into believing that you can make money with the help of all of those nice people.

  26. Those who talk don’t know and those who know don’t talk. Don’t watch TV or read any news.

  27. If you find that you did not take a couple of Emini trades in a row and they worked, you are likely trading too large a position size. Switch to trading 100 to 300 shares of SPY and swing for at least 20 to 50 cents. Even though you won’t get rich, at least you will make some money and build your confidence. If you think that you can comfortably trade three Emini contracts per trade, then you should trade just one. This will make it much easier for you to take every signal. If you trade three Eminis, you will let many good signals go because you really are comfortable trading only three contracts in the rare case of a perfect signal. You need to be trading a size where you are comfortable with any decent signal and remain comfortable if you lose two or three times in a row. One indicator of this comfort is your ability to take the next trade after those losses. If you feel too uncomfortable and are really waiting for perfection, you are still trading too much volume. Once you start cherry-picking, you are on the path to a blown account. Your emotions are a burden and give an edge to your opponents, as is the case in any competition.

  28. “I don’t care!” That is the most useful mantra. I don’t care if I lose on this trade, because I am trading a small enough size that a loss will not upset me and cloud my judgment. I don’t care what the experts are saying on TV or in the Wall Street Journal. I don’t care what is happening on the 3 and 1 minute charts or on volume or tick charts, and I don’t care about missing all of the wonderful signals that those charts are generating, because if the trades really are good, they will lead to 5 minute signals as well. I don’t care that the market is way overdone and is due for a correction. I don’t care about indicators, especially squiggly lines that show divergences in a huge trend (meanwhile, there has been no trend line break), but I do care about the one chart in front of me and what it is telling me. I also care about following my rules and not allowing any outside influence talk me out of doing what my rules are telling me.

  29. If you are afraid of taking a great trade because your stop would have to be too far, reduce your position size to maybe a quarter of normal so that your total dollar risk is no larger than for your usual trades. You need to get into the “I don’t care” mode to be able to take these trades. By cutting your position size, you can focus on the quality of the setup instead of being preoccupied with the dollars that you can lose if the trade fails. However, first spot a good setup before adopting the “I don’t care” mind-set, because you don’t want to be so apathetic about the dollars that you begin to take weak setups and then go on to lose money.

  30. The market is never certain when it has gone far enough, but it is always certain when it has gone too far. Most reversals require excess before traders believe that the reversal will work. Market inertia can be stopped only by excess.

  31. It is difficult to reverse a position. For most traders, it is far better to exit, even with a loss, and then look for another setup in the new direction.

  32. There are no reliable countertrend patterns so, unless you are a consistently profitable trader, never trade countertrend unless there first has been a strong break of a significant trend line, and the signal is a reasonable setup for an always-in reversal. When you are shorting below that great bear reversal bar in a strong bull trend, far smarter traders are buying with limit orders at the low of your signal bar. When you are buying on a stop above a bull reversal bar in a strong bear trend, smarter traders are shorting exactly where you are buying. Since 80 percent of reversals fail, who do you think is making the money?

  33. Any reversal setup is a good reason to take partial or full profits, but the setup has to be strong if you are considering a countertrend trade. Since 80 percent of reversals fail, it is far better to view each top as the start of a bull flag and each bottom as the start of a bear flag.

  34. Too early is always worse than too late. Since most reversals and breakouts fail, an early entry will likely fail. Since most trends go a long way, entering late is usually still a good trade.

  35. All patterns fail and the failures often fail, and when they do, they create a breakout pullback in the original direction and have a high probability of success.

  36. When you see that one side is suddenly trapped, the reliability of a scalp in the opposite direction goes up. Trapped traders will be forced out as you are getting in, and they will likely wait for more price action before entering again in their original direction, so the only traders left will be in your direction.

  37. Seeing traders getting trapped out of a trade on a stop run is as reliable a signal as seeing them getting trapped in a trade. If the market suddenly runs stops and then resumes its trend, this is a reliable setup for at least a scalper’s profit.

  38. Wait. If the market has not given any signals for 30 to 60 minutes and you find yourself checking your e-mail or talking on the phone with your daughter away at college, and suddenly the market makes a large bull trend bar that breaks out of a trading range, wait. You’ve lost touch with the market and it is trying to trap you in. Never make a quick decision to place a trade, especially on a sudden, large trend bar. If it turns into a great trade and you miss it, you will still be ahead overall because the odds are against you when you take trades under these circumstances. Yes, some will be winners, but if you review all of the times that you took these trades, you will discover that you lost money.

  39. You don’t have to trade. You goal as a trader is to make money, not to make trades, so take a trade only when it will help you achieve your goal. There will be many other signals all day long, so wait for a good one, and don’t be upset when you miss good trades. Many beginners want excitement and tend to overtrade. Many great traders find trading to be lonely and boring, but very profitable. Everyone wants to trade, but you should want to make money more than you want to trade. You should take only trades that are likely to make money, not simply relieve your tension from not having placed a trade in an hour or two.

  40. Simple is better. You don’t need indicators, and you should look at only one chart. If you can’t make money off a single chart with no indicators, adding more things to analyze will just make it more difficult. Also, trade only the very best setups until you are consistently profitable. The single biggest problem with using two charts is that there is a natural tendency to take only signals that occur simultaneously on both charts, which rarely happens. You end up rejecting most of the day’s great signals because the second chart does not have a signal or the signal occurred two ticks earlier. For example, if you see a great high 2 pullback to the exponential moving average in a bull trend on the 5 minute chart and then look at the 2 or 3 minute chart and see that it gave an entry two ticks earlier, you might not take the 5 minute entry because you will be afraid that the move will stop at the 2 minute scalper’s target and never reach the 5 minute target.

  41. Decide whether this is a hobby or a job. If it is a hobby, find another one because this one will be too expensive and it is dangerously addictive. All great traders are likely trading addicts, but most trading addicts will likely end up broke.

  42. Begin trading using a 5 minute chart, entering on a pullback and using a stop order for your entry. When the market is in a bull trend, look to buy above a bull bar at the moving average. When it is in a bear trend, look to short below a bear bar at the moving average. Take some or all off on a limit order at a profit target around the prior extreme of the trend, and then move the protective stop to breakeven on any remaining contracts.

  43. When starting out, you should consider trading the SPY instead of the Emini. One Emini is virtually identical to 500 SPY shares, and trading 200 to 500 SPY shares would allow you to scale out as you swing part of your trade, yet not incur much risk. Once you reach 1,000 to 1,500 SPY shares, if you are thinking that you will continue to increase your position size, then switch to the Emini. At that size, you can scale out of the Emini and you can increase your position size tremendously without slippage being a significant issue.

  44. Buy low and sell high, except in a clear and strong trend (see Part I in book 1 on trends). In a bull trend, buy high 2 setups even if they are at the high of the day; in a bear trend, sell low 2 setups. However, the market is in a trading range for the vast majority of the time. For example, if the market has been going up for a few bars and there is now a buy signal near the top of this leg up, ask yourself if you believe that the market is in one of the established clear and strong bull trend patterns described in these books. If you cannot convince yourself that it is, don’t buy high, even if the momentum looks great, since the odds are great that you will be trapped. Remember Warren Buffett’s version of the old saw, “Be afraid when others are greedy and be greedy when others are afraid.”

  45. The two most important feelings for the media and for beginners are fear and greed. Profitable traders feel neither. For them, the two most important feelings are uncertainty (confusion) and urgency, and they use both to make money. Every bar and every segment of every market is either a trend or a trading range. When a trader is certain, the market is in a strong trend. When he feels a sense of urgency, like he wants to buy as the market is going up (or short as it is going down) but is desperate for a pullback, the market is in a strong trend. He will buy at least a small position at the market instead of waiting for a pullback.

  46. When a trader is uncertain or confused, the market is in a trading range and he should only buy low and sell high. If he wants to take many trades, only scalp. Uncertainty means that the market has a lot of two-sided trading and therefore might be forming a trading range. Since most breakout attempts fail, it is better to only look to short if you are uncertain and the market is up for five to 10 bars, and only look for longs when it is down for five to 10 bars.

  47. When there is a trading range, buy low means that if the market is near the bottom of the range and you are short, you can buy back your short for a profit, and if there is a strong buy signal, you can buy to initiate a long. Likewise, when the market is toward the top of the range, you sell high. This selling can be to take your profit on your long, or, if there is a good short setup, you can sell to initiate a short position.

  48. Good fill, bad trade. Always be suspicious if the market lets you in or out at a price that is better than you anticipated. The corollary of bad fill, good trade is not as reliable.

  49. The first hour or two is usually the easiest time to make money, because the swings tend to be large and there are not many doji bars. The first hour is the easiest time to lose money as well, because you are overly confident about how easy it might be, and you don’t follow your rules carefully. The first hour usually has many reversals, so patiently wait for a swing setup, which will generally have less than a 50 percent chance of success but a potential reward that is at least twice as large as the risk. Experienced traders can scalp. If you don’t follow your rules and are in the red, you’ve missed the easiest time of the day to make money, which means that you will be unhappy all day as you hope to get back to breakeven in trading that is much slower and less profitable.

  50. If you are down on the day and you are now in the second half of the day, it can feel like you are swimming in quicksand—the harder you try to get out, the deeper you sink. Even great traders simply fail to connect emotionally with the flow of the market some days and they will occasionally lose, even though a printout of the 5 minute chart at the end of the day will be shockingly clear. The smartest thing to do is just make sure that you follow your rules into the close, and you will likely win back some of your losses. The worst thing to do is to modify your trading style, which is probably why you are down on the day. Don’t increase your position size and start trading lower-probability setups. If you have an approach that makes you money, stick with it and you will earn back your loss tomorrow. Using a different approach will only cost you more.

  51. Beginners should avoid trading in the middle of the day when the market is in the middle of a day’s range, especially if the moving average is relatively flat and the trading range is tight and has prominent tails (barbwire). When you are about to take any trade, always ask yourself if the setup is one of the best of the day. Is this the one that the institutions have been waiting for all day? If the answer is no and you are not a consistently profitable trader, then you should not take the trade, either.

  52. A tight trading range is the worst environment for entering on stops. The institutions are doing the opposite, and you will consistently lose if you insist on trading, hoping that a trend is about to begin.

  53. A tight trading range trumps everything. That means that it is more important than every good reason that you have to buy or sell. Unless you are a great trader, once you sense that a tight trading range might be forming, force yourself to not take any trades, even if you don’t trade for hours.

  54. Every bar and every series of bars is either a trend or a trading range. Pick one. Decide on the always-in direction and trade only in that direction until it changes. Throughout the day and especially around 8:30 a.m. PST, you need to be deciding whether the day resembles any trend pattern described in these books. If it does and you are looking to take any trade, you must take every with-trend trade. Never consider taking a countertrend trade if you haven’t been taking all of the with-trend trades.

  55. The best signal bars are trend bars in the direction of your trade. Doji bars are one-bar trading ranges and therefore usually terrible signal bars. You will usually lose if you buy above a trading range or sell below one.

  56. Most countertrend setups fail, and most with-trend setups succeed. Do the math and decide which you should be trading. Trends constantly form great-looking countertrend setups and lousy-looking with-trend setups. If you trade countertrend, you are gambling and, although you will often win and have fun, the math is against you and you will slowly but surely go broke. Countertrend setups in strong trends almost always fail and become great with-trend setups, especially on the 1 minute chart.

  57. You will not make consistent money until you stop trading countertrend scalps. You will win often enough to keep you trying to improve your technique, but over time your account will slowly disappear. Remember, your risk will likely have to be as large as your profit target, so it will usually take six winners just to get back to breakeven after four losses, and this is a very depressing prospect. Realistically, you should scalp only if you can win 60 percent of the time, and most traders should avoid any trade where the potential reward is not at least as large as the risk. Beginners should scalp only with the trend, if at all.

  58. Until you are consistently profitable, take only trades where your potential reward is at least as large as your risk. If you need to risk two points in the Emini, do not take your profit until you have at least two points. Most traders should not scalp for a reward that is smaller than the risk, because they will lose money even if they win on 60 percent of their trades. Remember the trader’s equation. The chance of winning times your potential reward has to be significantly greater than the chance of losing times your risk. You cannot risk two points to make one point and hope to make a profit unless you are right at least 80 percent of the time, and very few traders are that good.

  59. The trader’s equation has three variables, and any setup with a positive result is a good trade. This can be a trade with a high probability of success and a reward only equal to the risk, one with a low probability of success and a huge reward relative to risk, or anything in between.

  60. Experienced traders can scale into (or out of) trades to improve their trader’s equation. For example, the initial entry might have a relatively low probability of success, but subsequent entries might have significantly higher probabilities, improving the trader’s equation for the entire position.

  61. You will not make money until you start trading with-trend pullbacks.

  62. You will not make money trading reversals until you wait for a break of a significant trend line and then for a strong reversal bar on a test of the trend’s extreme.

  63. You will not make money unless you know what you are doing. Print out the 5 minute Emini chart every day (and stock charts, if you trade stocks) and write on the chart every setup that you see. When you see several price action features, write them all on the chart. Do this every day for years until you can look at any part of any chart and instantly understand what is happening.

  64. You will not make money in the long term until you know enough about your personality to find a trading style that is compatible. You need to be able to follow your rules comfortably, allowing you to enter and exit trades with minimal or no uncertainty or anxiety. Once you have mastered a method of trading, if you feel stress while trading, then you haven’t yet found either your style or yourself.

  65. You will not make money if you lose your discipline and take risky trades in the final couple of hours that you would never take in the first couple of hours. You will invariably give back those earnings from earlier in the day that fooled you into thinking that you are a better trader than you really are.

  66. You are competing against computers. They have the edge of speed, so it is usually best not to trade during a report, because that is when their speed edge is greatest. They also have the edge of not being emotional, so don’t trade when you are upset or distracted. Third, they have the edge of never getting tired, so don’t trade when you are worn out, which often happens at the end of the day.

  67. Always look for two legs. Also, when the market tries to do something twice and fails both times, that is a reliable signal that it will likely succeed in doing the opposite.

  68. Never cherry-pick, because you will invariably pick enough rotten cherries to end up a loser. The good trades catch you by surprise and are easy to miss, and you are then left with the not-so-good trades and the bad trades. Either swing trade and look to take only the best two or three of the best setups of the day or scalp and take every valid setup. The latter, however, is the more difficult alternative and is only for people with very unusual personalities (even more unusual than the rest of us traders!).

  69. Finding winners is easy, but avoiding losers is hard. The key to success is avoiding the losers. There can be far more winners each day than losers, but a few losers can ruin your day, so learn to spot them in advance and avoid them. Most occur: in the middle of the range with weak setup bars, like small dojis with closes in the middle; when you are entering a possible reversal too early (remember, when in doubt, wait for the second entry); when you are in denial of a trend and think that it has gone too far so you start taking 1 or 3 minute reversal entries, which turn into great with-trend setups when they fail (as they invariably will); or, when a very credible, well-credentialed technical analyst from a top firm proclaims on TV that the bottom is in, and you then only see buy setups, which invariably fail because the expert in fact is an idiot who cannot trade (if he could, he would be trading and not proclaiming).

  70. If you are in a trade and it is not doing what you expected, should you get out? Look at the market and pretend that you are flat. If you think that you would put that trade on at this moment, stay in your position. If not, get out.

  71. Do not scalp when you should swing, and do not swing when you should scalp. Until you are consistently profitable, you should keep your trading as simple as possible and swing just one to three trades a day, and do not scalp. To scalp successfully, you usually have to risk about as much as you stand to gain, and that requires that you win on more than 60 percent of your trades. You cannot hope to do that until you are a consistently profitable trader.

  72. If you find that you frequently take swing trades, but quickly convert them to scalps, you will probably lose money. When you take a swing trade, you are willing to accept a lower probability of success, but to make money on a scalp, you need a very high probability of success. Similarly, if you take scalps, but consistently exit early with a profit that is smaller than your risk, you will lose money. If you cannot stop yourself from following your plan, simply rely on your bracket orders and walk away for about an hour after you enter.

  73. If you lost money last month, do not trade any reversals. If seven of the past 10 bars are mostly above the moving average, do not look to short. Instead, only look to buy. If seven of the past 10 bars are mostly below the moving average, do not look to buy. Instead, only look to short.

  74. Beginners should take only the best trades. It is difficult to watch a screen for two or three hours at a time and not place a trade, but this is the best way for beginners to make money.

  75. Discipline is the most important characteristic of winning traders. Trading is easy to understand, but difficult to do. It is very difficult to follow simple rules, and even occasional self-indulgences can mean the difference between success and failure. Anyone can be as mentally tough as Tiger Woods for one shot, but few can be that tough for an entire round, and then be that way for a round every day of their lives. Everyone knows what mental toughness and discipline are and can be mentally tough and disciplined in some activities every day, but few truly appreciate just how extreme and unrelenting you have to be to be a great trader. Develop the discipline to take only the best trades. If you cannot do it for an entire day, force yourself to do it for the first hour of every day, and as you increase your position size, you might find that this is all you need to be a successful trader.

  76. The second most important trait of great traders is the ability to do nothing for hours at a time. Don’t succumb to boredom and let it convince you that it’s been too long since the last trade.

  77. Work on increasing your position size rather than on the number of trades or the variety of setups that you use. You only need to make two points in the Eminis a day to do well (50 contracts at two points a day is seven figures a year).

  78. If you perfect the skills of trading, you can make more money than you could ever have imagined possible, and you will have the ability to live your dreams.

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没扳机的枪是响不了的——入场要有信号的支持

Trigger Control

  • 主要内容
    • 日线交易要有日线级别K线信号的支持。
    • 即使是回撤入场,也要在入场信号出现之后。

下图中大部分时间中,市场是一个盘整的区间。区间中,只有底部才有进场可能性。由于这个区间太窄了,空间不够,所以区间突破前,任何进场都不是明智的选择。

20160623

区间终究是要被突破的。一个狭长的区间,往往意味着一次有力的突破。棒19开始的尖峰呈现出了很强的力量,几根K显得阳线实体互不重叠,直接突破了前期狭窄的盘整区间。毫无疑问,这次突破是有效的。随后的回踩也是很理想的Pullback形态,力量不强,斜率不大,回踩放缓。一切都顺风顺水,价格在回踩测试棒9的前高。

这个时候,也许会有交易者会按耐不住,难免开始手痒、心急,着急入场,于是被套。价格没有获得任何有效的支撑,直接去测试区间底部了。

事后用上帝视角看,做多当然是错误的。固然,没有任何交易架构拥有100%的胜率,但很多亏损都是可以避免的。上面就是一例。开仓入场要依靠入场信号。具体的入场信号之于交易者,如同发令枪之于运动员。一个运动员,如果不等发令枪响,总是抢跑,不说犯规与否,单是一次次的体力消耗也能在枪响之前就让运动员气力全无。交易也是一样,不等信号直接入场,账户里的资金就会像运动员体内的爆发力,提前无谓消耗,待到有效的信号出现,早已没劲了。

这个图中,尽管盘整-突破-回踩几个大的架构都有,但最后的扳机不存在。回踩中,从日线看没有任何明确的入场信号。如果把回踩看作一个微型的下降趋势,那么趋势线完全没有被突破。棒22的前一棒很关键。如果这一棒不收阴线,而是形成一个下影线较长的Pinbar,K线振幅适中,收盘价又能回到前一棒的阳线实体内,参考之前大的架构,将行程一个非常理想的入场机会。但是,在这个案例中,这个入场信号不存在。棒23的大阴线宣告了做多计划的彻底破产。

这把枪再好看,没有扳机,也注定响不了。端着没有板机的枪打猎,流血是唯一的结果。

总结两句话:

  • 日线交易要有日线级别K线信号的支持。
  • 即使是回撤入场,也要在入场信号出现之后。

读到这里再看一遍图,会不会有了些新的发现?

20160623

文后再说几句。根据Al Brooks的分析,这里还有另一层分析。棒14开始,价格从区间的底部向上形成了三推。棒20前一棒是一个拥有上影线的阳线。上影线很长的K线出现在三推形态中,交易者们会预期后面一棒会再次测试影线顶点。三推中,价格达到影线顶点,顺势刮头皮者会平多,逆势刮头皮者会开空,空方力量会增强,回踩即将展开。——日内五分钟线的交易里及时做出这些分析,需要多年的经验积累和高度集中的注意力。

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大格局和小信号的典型结合——一个旗形反转案例

极端的趋势后,市场的振幅被拉开,反转交易往往有利可图。大行情往往不会V型反转,价格运行的力度有一个从强到弱的过程。Al Brooks的书里有一个“最终旗形反转”的案例,比较典型。记录在这里。

Albrooks 20160628

这里的下跌尖峰非常强烈,棒1为什么不需要“等待二次确认”?这与棒1前面的旗形有关。

第一个证据是旗形。旗形意味着犹豫。这是第一个弱势信号。

第二个证据是棒1的实体,棒1拥有一个阳线实体。当然,小小的实体并不足以单独说明什么。

第三个证据是棒1的上下影线。棒1没有上影线,下影线很长。结合多头实体,这是个有意义的反转线。反转线中,最高价收盘意味着次日开盘后拥有继续上行的动能,有助于入场后迅速脱离成本。

入场后,第一目标点位上看到9:00左右的前低是可以的。目测潜在的回报比在2以上。考虑到这次运动的确定性要高于50%,交易者方程是有利的。

按照书中Al Brooks主张,对于此类交易,要波段化处理,至少看“10棒,两条腿”。就这个图来说,开仓后第12棒出现趋势棒阳线。趋势棒收盘以后,交易者应该注意到这样几个事实:

  • 以跳空开盘为一推计算,反转棒发生在开盘后的三推以后- 之前设定的目标位到了
  • 突破了当日开盘后的下降趋势线(未画出),有回踩测试的需要
  • 价格长期运行在EMA均线之下,首次站到均线上面,存在下拉的力量

综合考虑这些因素,开仓后第12棒的趋势棒收盘后,可暂时获利了结。

这是一个比较典型的最终旗形后反转的例子。总结一下一般的经验:

  • 一般而言,反转至少需要二次确认。这个案例中的“二次”,是指“最终旗形”+“单棒反转”。反转交易,孤证不立,要有验证。
  • 反转不能建立于想象,要有大的格局予以支持。这个案例比较典型,具体的技术分析是建立在“三推”、“趋势线突破”等较大的依据为支撑的。
  • 小信号很重要。根据Al Brooks的观点,一个典型的反转棒放到合适的位置,可以带来70%以上的胜率。精确入场,必须有典型信号的支持。

需要反复强调的一点是:通过“个例”论证“经验”,永远是在“以偏概全”。但除了这个路径,似乎并没有更好地写作方法。就算是约翰·墨菲的《期货市场技术分析》,也要运用个例。这是任何一个写作者都逃不开的窠臼。

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