作者归档:康健

交易员的生存之道

(Photo By Daryn Bartlett)

交易员的交易系统与计算机的量化策略之间存在着根本的不同。一个成熟的主观交易系统应该由三个部分组成:量化依据、筛选标准和哲学基础

  • 量化依据。量化依据是指一个交易系统中具体信号的特征、入场点、出场点、头寸大小的计算方式。无论是高频交易还是主观交易系统,“量化”都是共同的特征。量化是对抗情绪最有力的防护网,是任何交易员上场前必须佩戴的护具。即使是主观分时图交易,“满仓、半仓、四分之一仓”这种笼统的表述事实上也是一种量化。系统要求满仓半仓开仓,就不能因为恐惧、犹豫而缩小头寸。
  • 筛选标准。筛选标准是过滤掉无效信号的必备品。任何一个交易系统都需要筛选。有些标准,主观交易和机器交易共同使用。根据形态,可以判断趋势还是震荡;根据均线,可以判断顺势还是逆势;根据价格波动的时间跨度、点位幅度,可以判断是否已经超买超卖;根据影线长短、实体大小、趋势角度,可以识别价格运动的强弱——这些机器也可以做到,但有些标准,目前机器交易还很难涉足,这其中最典型的因素就是基本面。做交易,终极路径还是基本面和技术面的合二为一。基本面发现了大级别的供需失衡,技术分析予以验证,进而找出具体的买卖点,这是提升胜率和回报比的终南之道。
  • 哲学基础。只要世界还是由人来主宰,市场就依然是由人构成的。即使是量化、高频交易,策略的背后也是制定策略的人。有人在,市场中就会有些不变的东西。交易员的交易系统必须在哲学层面找到落脚的依据,交易系统才能站稳,才能长期稳定盈利。没有哲学基础的交易系统,只是对历史数据优化后的“刻舟求剑”,注定不会长期有效。交易中的哲学基础往往植根于人性,一般都比较朴素。比如,市场做同一个事情尝试两次都失败了,价格反方向运动的概率就会比50%略有上升;比如,市场价格无论高低,总是在高波动性和低波动性之间运行;比如,马太效应,自我强化,反身性理论(趋势会延续,而延续本身又会强化趋势);比如,否定之否定(失败的失败——突破失败,回撤,回撤失败,趋势延续——Pullback入场信号);比如,未来无法预测(趋势跟踪技术,止盈不止损)。大道至简,凡是长期有效的交易系统,都是可以找到哲学基础的。这一点,据我所知,目前还没有机器可以理解,计算机的深度学习似乎也无法做到。

三个部分中,前面一个半机器可以做到,甚至可以比人做得更好,后面一个半机器目前还无法实现。机器无法深度参与筛选标准中的基本面配合,这个好理解。为什么说量化策略很难涉足哲学基础呢?有些量化交易策略确实具备哲学基础,但每天执行这些策略的计算机并不理解它,掌握哲学基础的依然是计算机背后的人,而人又基本不会代替计算机下单,往往只在策略疑似失效时才会予以干预。而交易员的价值就在于对一个个信号进行取舍,进场或者放弃,加量还是减量。这个角度看,交易员依然是不可取代的,Trading这个手艺也将长期存在。 当然,这将将非常残酷。大量炒单、超短线的交易手法将逐渐被机器所取代,稳定盈利难度越来越大,大量手工机械交易员将被市场淘汰。交易员群体将面临一次剧烈的新陈代谢。低频交易、基本面交易将是人类交易员最后的高地。能够通过刻苦攀登登上高地的交易员,面对充斥着大量计算机交易员的市场,将会重新获得独特的竞争优势。 这个独特的优势就是:犯错。是的,人类会犯错,计算机不会。犯错是人类交易员最后的核心优势。《浪潮之巅》的作者吴军有一个观点,人类一些区别于动物的主要能力,比如语言、逻辑、感情,源自于进化过程中的基因复制“错误”。一种极小概率的错误可能是让某种能力变强,比如语言这个能力,就是在基因“抄书”的过程中抄错而产生的。猴子进化成人,就是不断犯错的过程。计算机最大的优点在于不会犯错。不会犯错,计算机永远不会进化成人,猴子也将永远是猴子。 人类交易员并不用灰心。未来是不可知的,是不可预测的,一切量化策略的系统回测都只是对过去的归纳,而不是对未来的把握。计算机的隐喻就是追求尽可能高的胜率、尽可能高的回报比,以及在此之上尽可能高的交易频率。人类交易员的高地则在于犯错,在于试错和自我纠正。我们永远不知道价格未来将如何运行,因此一切策略本质上都是猜测。我们可能对了,可能错了,我们真正的优势就在于承认错误,进而纠正错误——正确的时候正确下去,错误的时候纠正错误——这恰恰暗合了趋势交易中“截断亏损,让利润奔跑”的古谚。这也是人类交易员的核心优势。 关注的重点有两个:

  • 从基本面的供需失衡入手,重点关注大的供需失衡,大的资源错配。计算机策略很难有效涉足基本面的大机会,这是人类投研团队的强项。
  • 从长周期入手。日线以内的价格波动更多来自于情绪变化,很少反映供需失衡,这各领域也恰恰是计算机的优势。长周期对应供需,在世界彻底物联网化之前,还是人类独占的领地。

恐惧来自于不确定。对未来的恐惧是人类进步永恒的主题。学会犯错,学会学习,学会纠错,交易员要相信,利润就在止损之中。记住这句古语: 善败者不亡。

CEO们最好的生产力工具是什么?

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本文是Quora上的题目。原题:What are the best productivity hacks of startup CEOs?,链接在这里。有两个答案很有意思。

Dustin Moskovitz——“周三没会”

我最在乎的一招是“周三没会”,从Facebook上学来的。这年头,每个人的日程表上要能有一天是干净的,那可太难得了。无论你是一个手艺人还是总经理,这都是在工作中持续保持主动的无价之宝。就我个人而言,每周的这一天基本都是在写代码。

Auren Hoffman——专注,不要多线程,少干活。

少干活。

多数CEO最大的错误就是老想着去做特别多的事。真正的赢家是最少干活--但是做的最好的那一个。当然了,这不仅仅适用于CEO们,每个人都一样。

不要多线程--串联,不要并联

做一件事的时候,要完全地专注于这件事。不要多线程。如果你发现自己开会的时候读邮件(或刷知乎),那八成你压根就不应该出现在这个会议上(当然也有可能是这个会议太烂了)。

如果你正在忙一件事(例如阅读一个法律文本),集中精力分配时间在这上面(比如20分钟)。这块时间里面,别的事一概不干。如果能比计划的时间更早一些完成,你也可以做点什么奖励一下自己——当然,只能是你确实是提前完成的时候。

对绝大多数的事情说“不”

你是老大,眼前总会有很多看起来不错的机会。你越是成功人士,你面前的机会往往也就越有趣。不要踩进说“可以”的陷阱。考虑要不要出席一个邀请你的会议时,板着脸冷酷一点。同样地,聚会、论坛、演讲、内部汇报,全都一样。

一个好的CEO应该善于对他眼前90%的潜在机会说“不”。没错,90%。那些潜在的机会多半都看着不错,很有意思。但事关你自己的时间,你需要冷酷一点。

确认趋势的3个“傻瓜”策略【译文】

作者:Nial Fuller 原文:via

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作为Price Action的交易者,最重要的事就是区分市场是不是处于趋势之中。是否进场取决于此,搞懂如何去区别趋势和区间就是一个非常严肃的问题了。

如果你最近曾经为这个问题费过心思,或者你是一个交易新手,今天的内容就是给你设计的。读过下面的文字,你应该会感觉到更清楚一些——如何把趋势从无序的市场中找出来。

找Price Action的架构

第一个策略已经矗立在市场中数百年了,从未失灵,常谈常新。

我最喜欢用这个方法去区分趋势市场——从Price Action的视角简单看一下市场。非常简单,我就找一个重复的形态:上升趋势中的更高的高点(Higher Highs ,HH)和更高的低点(Higher Lows,HL),和下降趋势中的更低的高点(Lower Highs ,LH)和更低的低点(Lower Lows ,LL)。

下面是一个典型案例。这是一个典型的下降趋势,其中包括了很多重复的更低的高点(LH)和更低的低点(LL)……

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下面是一个典型案例。这是一个典型的上升趋势,其中包括了很多重复的更高的高点(HH)和更高的低点(HL)……

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请注意:我经常收到邮件问我,怎样知道一个新的趋势已经开始了,一个旧的趋势已经结束了。用我刚刚提到的办法就行,找到HH、HL、LH、LL这几个点就好了。举例,一旦你看到了一组HH和HL点被打断或破坏了,市场出现了一个更低的高点(LH),这就是个早期的信号,提醒你上升趋势将结束了。

讲真,如果说一个上升趋势结束了,一个新的下降趋势产生了,我们还需要在前面的上升趋势后面至少找到一组LH和LL点。也就是说,一旦市场运行出现了第一个更低的高点(即失败的新高),接着我们需要看到这个更低的高点后面出现一个更低的低点(LH)。这时候,我们就可以找机会入场放空了。

找平行线

我们还可以通过关键位置的支撑阻力位来区分市场是否处于趋势之中。最基本的方法是简单地看一眼,看看能不能找到上下两条水平线之间清晰地震荡。如果存在平行位置之间的反复震荡,这就是一个区间震荡中的市场,否则市场就是处于趋势之中。

区间有两个基本类型:窄的和宽的。更多信息可以学习区间市场的文章。

下面的例子里,我们可以发现市场在支撑阻力位之间反复震荡。注意,这里的价格不必精确地击中关键位置,只要大概运行在两个支撑阻力关键位置之间,就不是趋势市场,而是宽幅震荡。

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移动均线

第三个区分趋势市场的方法是均线。均线能给新手们提供一个可视化的分析依据,实际使用中还需要与其他Price Action的策略合并判断才行。原因我们下面会说。

我主要看日线图,用8天和21天的指数移动平均线(EMAs)快速判断趋势。均线也能提供一个动态的支撑阻力区域。

使用均线区分趋势市场要注意两个基本要点。一是均线的交叉方向,是金叉还是死叉?我只用均线的交叉用于判断方向,而不用传统意义上的“移动均线交叉入场”。

二是两根均线的分叉是否越来越大,这往往是趋势强弱的指示。当然了,这也需要结合前面介绍的Price Action的策略,毕竟仅仅依靠均线,在宽幅震荡中可能会释放出假信号。均线更适合作为判断趋势方向的快速参考,再有就是分析一下买和卖的大概的支撑阻力。

均线组合在图上可以画出一条动态的移动支撑阻力区域、分层。均线的分层在两条均线之间,比如“8日线和21日线之间的分层”。我们可以在某个分层中寻找Price Action的信号,入场后用这个均线分层跟踪趋势。

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宽幅震荡的区间市场中使用移动均线时,要格外小心假信号。这也是为什么我们之前反复强调,要用Price Action方法作为“过滤器”,来筛选均线信号。

举例来说,前面第二点提到的宽幅震荡市场中,如果你放了一组均线,两根均线很可能出现反复交叉,这期间价格也在支撑阻力位之间反复震荡。如果你跟着均线在震荡市中操作,价格上上下下,均线反复交叉,你将持续的反复挨耳光。从这个角度考虑,我更倾向于用上面说的第一点判断趋势。当然,均线策略是策略1非常好的补充和验证依据,还可以提供一套好的“价值区域”参考,来指导趋势中的买卖操作。

结语

趋势是你的朋友。你一定希望在入场前,能够完全清晰地判断市场究竟是不是趋势。希望今天的内容能帮你界定如何区分趋势和震荡,加大你把握大趋势的把握。学习更多的趋势交易和区间交易知识,可以参考我们其他的内容。

Al Brooks的78条交易指引

这78条提示,是Al Brooks三本书中反转篇的结尾。字字珠玑,照录如下。致敬Al Brooks。

  1. Reading these 570,000 words is like reading a detailed manual on how to do anything, such as playing golf or a violin. It takes a lot of hard work to turn the information into the ability to make a living as a trader, but it is impossible without understanding how markets work. Like being a professional golfer or violinist, no matter how good you get, you always want to be better, so the challenge and satisfaction last long after you become consistently profitable.

  2. Everything that you see is in a gray fog. Nothing is perfectly clear. Close is close enough. If something looks like a reliable pattern, it will likely trade like a reliable pattern.

  3. There is no easy set of reliable rules to make money as a trader, and everything is subjective. This is a zero-sum game with very smart players, so when an edge exists, it is small and fleeting. For a trader to make money, he has to be consistently better than half of the other traders out there (or more accurately, trade a positive trader’s equation more than half of the time). Since most of the competitors are profitable institutions, a trader has to be very good. However, edges appear constantly, and if you learn to spot them and understand how to trade them, you are in a position to make money.

  4. The edge can never get very large because institutions would take advantage of it as it was growing. A trade cannot have a high probability of making a big reward relative to the risk.

  5. Reading charts well is difficult, but it is only half of what you need to know to make money. You also need to learn to trade, which is just as difficult. Trading successfully always has been and will always continue to be hard to do, no matter what method you use. If there were an easy way to make money, everyone would do it and then there would be no trapped traders to drive the market to your target. Read a book that teaches you how to play the violin and then go out to see if the world will give you money to hear you play. Just because you understand how to do something does not mean that you can do it effectively, especially if it is difficult to do.

  6. A trader needs a mathematical advantage to make money. At every moment, there is always a mathematical edge for both a long and a short trade, but the edges are usually not clear. When they are relatively clear, they are fleeting and small. However, those are the times when traders need to place their trades.

  7. The ability to spot trades that have a positive trader’s equation is the key to success. That can mean buying above a bar on a stop, selling above a bar with a limit order, buying below a bar with a limit order, or selling below a bar on a stop.

  8. The single most important determination that a trader makes, and he makes this after the close of every bar, is whether there will be more buyers or sellers above and below the prior bar. This is particularly true with breakouts and failed breakouts, because the move that follows usually determines the always-in direction and therefore lasts for many points and is not just a scalp.

  9. Every time you buy above the high of the prior bar on a stop, someone else is shorting there with a limit order. When you sell one tick below the low of the prior bar, there is a strong bull who is taking the other side of your trade. Always remember that nothing is certain, and the edge is always small because there are smart people who believe the exact opposite of what you do.

  10. Every bar, even a strong trend bar, is a signal bar for both directions, and the market can begin a trend up or down on the next bar. Be open to all possibilities, including the exact opposite of what you expect, and when the surprise happens, don’t question or deny it. Just read it and trade it.

  11. Every time you look to enter a setup, make sure to consider what the market is telling you if instead it breaks out of the opposite end of the signal bar. Sometimes that buy setup that you see might in fact also be a great sell setup because it will trap longs who will cover below the low of the signal or entry bars.

  12. Understanding trend bars that create breakouts is one of the most important skills that a trader can acquire. Traders need to be able to assess whether a breakout is likely to succeed, or it will be met with profit taking and a pullback, or it will be followed by a reversal.

  13. Look for signs of strength and weakness and weigh them to determine if they give you an edge. If you see the market doing something, assess how strong the setup is. Did it fail to take an opportunity to do something strong? If so, the setup is weaker.

  14. Whenever you are positive that your setup is good, don’t take the trade. You are missing something. You don’t see what the person who is taking the other side of your trade is seeing, and that person is just as smart as you are. Be humble. If you are too confident, your arrogance will make you lose because you will be using unrealistically high probabilities in your evaluation of the trader’s equation.

  15. Much of life is not what it seems. In fact, the famous mathematician Charles Lutwidge Dodgson was not what he seemed to be and is better known as Lewis Carroll. We work in an Alice in Wonderland world where nothing is really as it seems. Up is not always up and down is not always down. Just look at most strong breakouts of trading ranges—they usually fail, and up is really the start of down and down is really just part of up. Also, 60 percent is 60 percent in only 90 percent of the cases and can be 90 percent sometimes and 10 percent at other times. If a good setup is 60 percent, how can you win 80 percent or more of the time? Well, in a pullback in a strong trend just above support, a setup might work 60 percent of the time, but if you can scale in as the market goes lower, especially if your subsequent entries are larger, you might find that you win in 80 percent or more of those 60 percent setups. Also, if you use a very wide stop and are willing to sit through a large drawdown for a couple of hours, that 60 percent chance of making two points before losing two points in the Emini might be a 90 percent chance of making four points before losing eight points. If you are flexible and comfortable with constantly changing probabilities and many probabilities coexisting, your chance of success is much greater.

  16. The single most important thing that you can do all day is talk yourself out of bad trades. For example, if it is a trading range day, don’t look to buy after a strong bull trend bar or a high 1 near the top of the range, and don’t look to short after a strong bear trend bar or low 1 near the bottom of the range.

  17. The market constantly exhibits inertia and tends to continue what it has just been doing. If it is in a trend, 80 percent of the attempts to reverse it will fail and lead to a flag and then a resumption of the trend. If it is in a trading range, 80 percent of the attempts to break out into a trend will fail.

  18. If ever you feel twisted inside because a pullback is going too far, you are likely mistakenly seeing a pullback when in fact the trend has reversed.

  19. If you think the market rationally should be going up, but instead it is offering you a strong sell setup, take it. Trade the trade that you have and not the one that you want or expect, because “the market can stay irrational much longer than you can stay solvent” (a quote attributed to John Maynard Keynes).

  20. Price is truth. Never argue with what the market is telling you. For a day trader, fundamentals are almost entirely useless. The market will tell you where it is going and it cannot hide what it is doing. Neither you nor the experts on television can know how the market will react to the fundamentals, although those experts often speak with certainty. Since the market is rarely more than 60 percent certain of anything, whenever pundits speak with certainty, they are ignoring math and therefore the most basic characteristic of the market. If you follow someone who is indifferent to or ignorant of how markets work, you will lose money.

  21. Everything makes sense. If you know how to read price action, nothing will surprise you, because you will understand what the market is doing. Beginners can see it on a printout at the end of the day. The goal is to learn how to read fast enough so that you can understand what is happening in real time.

  22. “It’s not fair!” If that is how you are feeling, take a break from trading. You are absolutely right—it is not fair, but that is because it is all based on mathematics, and fairness is never one of the variables. If you are concerned about fairness, you are not synchronized with the market. Computer programs control all market activity, and they have no concept of fairness; they never get tired, they don’t remember what their last trade was, and they are relentlessly objective. Since they are making money, you need to try to emulate their qualities. They cannot hide what they are doing, and your job is to see what they are doing and then copy them. Yes, you will enter after their first entry, but they will continue to enter after you do, and they are the force that will drive the market far enough to give you your profit.

  23. Price action is based on human behavior and therefore has a genetic basis. This is why it works in all markets in all countries and on all time frames and it has always worked and always will inescapably reflect human behavior, at least until we evolve into a new species.

  24. Always have a protective stop in the market because it protects you from the greatest danger you will ever face as a trader. That danger is not the market, which could not care less whether you win or lose, never knows that you exist, and is never out to get you. It is yourself, and all of your inadequacies as a trader, including denial, arrogance, and a lack of discipline.

  25. Thinking is very difficult. Losers prefer instead to look with religious zeal for a savior who will protect them from losing money. Saviors can be confident, impressive experts with outstanding credentials on TV, famous writers of newsletters, chat room leaders, indicators, or any other external idol into which traders infuse the power to protect them and take them to the Promised Land. Instead, they will all slowly suck the last dollar from your account. You will not make money until you do your own analysis and ignore all external influences that promise you success, but in fact exist only to make money for themselves and not you. The experts on TV hope to establish credibility that they can use to sell their services or get a promotion, the TV station makes money off commercials, the chat room and newsletter people sell their services, and the software company that gives you indicators does so for a fee. No one is going to help you in the long run, so never fool yourself into believing that you can make money with the help of all of those nice people.

  26. Those who talk don’t know and those who know don’t talk. Don’t watch TV or read any news.

  27. If you find that you did not take a couple of Emini trades in a row and they worked, you are likely trading too large a position size. Switch to trading 100 to 300 shares of SPY and swing for at least 20 to 50 cents. Even though you won’t get rich, at least you will make some money and build your confidence. If you think that you can comfortably trade three Emini contracts per trade, then you should trade just one. This will make it much easier for you to take every signal. If you trade three Eminis, you will let many good signals go because you really are comfortable trading only three contracts in the rare case of a perfect signal. You need to be trading a size where you are comfortable with any decent signal and remain comfortable if you lose two or three times in a row. One indicator of this comfort is your ability to take the next trade after those losses. If you feel too uncomfortable and are really waiting for perfection, you are still trading too much volume. Once you start cherry-picking, you are on the path to a blown account. Your emotions are a burden and give an edge to your opponents, as is the case in any competition.

  28. “I don’t care!” That is the most useful mantra. I don’t care if I lose on this trade, because I am trading a small enough size that a loss will not upset me and cloud my judgment. I don’t care what the experts are saying on TV or in the Wall Street Journal. I don’t care what is happening on the 3 and 1 minute charts or on volume or tick charts, and I don’t care about missing all of the wonderful signals that those charts are generating, because if the trades really are good, they will lead to 5 minute signals as well. I don’t care that the market is way overdone and is due for a correction. I don’t care about indicators, especially squiggly lines that show divergences in a huge trend (meanwhile, there has been no trend line break), but I do care about the one chart in front of me and what it is telling me. I also care about following my rules and not allowing any outside influence talk me out of doing what my rules are telling me.

  29. If you are afraid of taking a great trade because your stop would have to be too far, reduce your position size to maybe a quarter of normal so that your total dollar risk is no larger than for your usual trades. You need to get into the “I don’t care” mode to be able to take these trades. By cutting your position size, you can focus on the quality of the setup instead of being preoccupied with the dollars that you can lose if the trade fails. However, first spot a good setup before adopting the “I don’t care” mind-set, because you don’t want to be so apathetic about the dollars that you begin to take weak setups and then go on to lose money.

  30. The market is never certain when it has gone far enough, but it is always certain when it has gone too far. Most reversals require excess before traders believe that the reversal will work. Market inertia can be stopped only by excess.

  31. It is difficult to reverse a position. For most traders, it is far better to exit, even with a loss, and then look for another setup in the new direction.

  32. There are no reliable countertrend patterns so, unless you are a consistently profitable trader, never trade countertrend unless there first has been a strong break of a significant trend line, and the signal is a reasonable setup for an always-in reversal. When you are shorting below that great bear reversal bar in a strong bull trend, far smarter traders are buying with limit orders at the low of your signal bar. When you are buying on a stop above a bull reversal bar in a strong bear trend, smarter traders are shorting exactly where you are buying. Since 80 percent of reversals fail, who do you think is making the money?

  33. Any reversal setup is a good reason to take partial or full profits, but the setup has to be strong if you are considering a countertrend trade. Since 80 percent of reversals fail, it is far better to view each top as the start of a bull flag and each bottom as the start of a bear flag.

  34. Too early is always worse than too late. Since most reversals and breakouts fail, an early entry will likely fail. Since most trends go a long way, entering late is usually still a good trade.

  35. All patterns fail and the failures often fail, and when they do, they create a breakout pullback in the original direction and have a high probability of success.

  36. When you see that one side is suddenly trapped, the reliability of a scalp in the opposite direction goes up. Trapped traders will be forced out as you are getting in, and they will likely wait for more price action before entering again in their original direction, so the only traders left will be in your direction.

  37. Seeing traders getting trapped out of a trade on a stop run is as reliable a signal as seeing them getting trapped in a trade. If the market suddenly runs stops and then resumes its trend, this is a reliable setup for at least a scalper’s profit.

  38. Wait. If the market has not given any signals for 30 to 60 minutes and you find yourself checking your e-mail or talking on the phone with your daughter away at college, and suddenly the market makes a large bull trend bar that breaks out of a trading range, wait. You’ve lost touch with the market and it is trying to trap you in. Never make a quick decision to place a trade, especially on a sudden, large trend bar. If it turns into a great trade and you miss it, you will still be ahead overall because the odds are against you when you take trades under these circumstances. Yes, some will be winners, but if you review all of the times that you took these trades, you will discover that you lost money.

  39. You don’t have to trade. You goal as a trader is to make money, not to make trades, so take a trade only when it will help you achieve your goal. There will be many other signals all day long, so wait for a good one, and don’t be upset when you miss good trades. Many beginners want excitement and tend to overtrade. Many great traders find trading to be lonely and boring, but very profitable. Everyone wants to trade, but you should want to make money more than you want to trade. You should take only trades that are likely to make money, not simply relieve your tension from not having placed a trade in an hour or two.

  40. Simple is better. You don’t need indicators, and you should look at only one chart. If you can’t make money off a single chart with no indicators, adding more things to analyze will just make it more difficult. Also, trade only the very best setups until you are consistently profitable. The single biggest problem with using two charts is that there is a natural tendency to take only signals that occur simultaneously on both charts, which rarely happens. You end up rejecting most of the day’s great signals because the second chart does not have a signal or the signal occurred two ticks earlier. For example, if you see a great high 2 pullback to the exponential moving average in a bull trend on the 5 minute chart and then look at the 2 or 3 minute chart and see that it gave an entry two ticks earlier, you might not take the 5 minute entry because you will be afraid that the move will stop at the 2 minute scalper’s target and never reach the 5 minute target.

  41. Decide whether this is a hobby or a job. If it is a hobby, find another one because this one will be too expensive and it is dangerously addictive. All great traders are likely trading addicts, but most trading addicts will likely end up broke.

  42. Begin trading using a 5 minute chart, entering on a pullback and using a stop order for your entry. When the market is in a bull trend, look to buy above a bull bar at the moving average. When it is in a bear trend, look to short below a bear bar at the moving average. Take some or all off on a limit order at a profit target around the prior extreme of the trend, and then move the protective stop to breakeven on any remaining contracts.

  43. When starting out, you should consider trading the SPY instead of the Emini. One Emini is virtually identical to 500 SPY shares, and trading 200 to 500 SPY shares would allow you to scale out as you swing part of your trade, yet not incur much risk. Once you reach 1,000 to 1,500 SPY shares, if you are thinking that you will continue to increase your position size, then switch to the Emini. At that size, you can scale out of the Emini and you can increase your position size tremendously without slippage being a significant issue.

  44. Buy low and sell high, except in a clear and strong trend (see Part I in book 1 on trends). In a bull trend, buy high 2 setups even if they are at the high of the day; in a bear trend, sell low 2 setups. However, the market is in a trading range for the vast majority of the time. For example, if the market has been going up for a few bars and there is now a buy signal near the top of this leg up, ask yourself if you believe that the market is in one of the established clear and strong bull trend patterns described in these books. If you cannot convince yourself that it is, don’t buy high, even if the momentum looks great, since the odds are great that you will be trapped. Remember Warren Buffett’s version of the old saw, “Be afraid when others are greedy and be greedy when others are afraid.”

  45. The two most important feelings for the media and for beginners are fear and greed. Profitable traders feel neither. For them, the two most important feelings are uncertainty (confusion) and urgency, and they use both to make money. Every bar and every segment of every market is either a trend or a trading range. When a trader is certain, the market is in a strong trend. When he feels a sense of urgency, like he wants to buy as the market is going up (or short as it is going down) but is desperate for a pullback, the market is in a strong trend. He will buy at least a small position at the market instead of waiting for a pullback.

  46. When a trader is uncertain or confused, the market is in a trading range and he should only buy low and sell high. If he wants to take many trades, only scalp. Uncertainty means that the market has a lot of two-sided trading and therefore might be forming a trading range. Since most breakout attempts fail, it is better to only look to short if you are uncertain and the market is up for five to 10 bars, and only look for longs when it is down for five to 10 bars.

  47. When there is a trading range, buy low means that if the market is near the bottom of the range and you are short, you can buy back your short for a profit, and if there is a strong buy signal, you can buy to initiate a long. Likewise, when the market is toward the top of the range, you sell high. This selling can be to take your profit on your long, or, if there is a good short setup, you can sell to initiate a short position.

  48. Good fill, bad trade. Always be suspicious if the market lets you in or out at a price that is better than you anticipated. The corollary of bad fill, good trade is not as reliable.

  49. The first hour or two is usually the easiest time to make money, because the swings tend to be large and there are not many doji bars. The first hour is the easiest time to lose money as well, because you are overly confident about how easy it might be, and you don’t follow your rules carefully. The first hour usually has many reversals, so patiently wait for a swing setup, which will generally have less than a 50 percent chance of success but a potential reward that is at least twice as large as the risk. Experienced traders can scalp. If you don’t follow your rules and are in the red, you’ve missed the easiest time of the day to make money, which means that you will be unhappy all day as you hope to get back to breakeven in trading that is much slower and less profitable.

  50. If you are down on the day and you are now in the second half of the day, it can feel like you are swimming in quicksand—the harder you try to get out, the deeper you sink. Even great traders simply fail to connect emotionally with the flow of the market some days and they will occasionally lose, even though a printout of the 5 minute chart at the end of the day will be shockingly clear. The smartest thing to do is just make sure that you follow your rules into the close, and you will likely win back some of your losses. The worst thing to do is to modify your trading style, which is probably why you are down on the day. Don’t increase your position size and start trading lower-probability setups. If you have an approach that makes you money, stick with it and you will earn back your loss tomorrow. Using a different approach will only cost you more.

  51. Beginners should avoid trading in the middle of the day when the market is in the middle of a day’s range, especially if the moving average is relatively flat and the trading range is tight and has prominent tails (barbwire). When you are about to take any trade, always ask yourself if the setup is one of the best of the day. Is this the one that the institutions have been waiting for all day? If the answer is no and you are not a consistently profitable trader, then you should not take the trade, either.

  52. A tight trading range is the worst environment for entering on stops. The institutions are doing the opposite, and you will consistently lose if you insist on trading, hoping that a trend is about to begin.

  53. A tight trading range trumps everything. That means that it is more important than every good reason that you have to buy or sell. Unless you are a great trader, once you sense that a tight trading range might be forming, force yourself to not take any trades, even if you don’t trade for hours.

  54. Every bar and every series of bars is either a trend or a trading range. Pick one. Decide on the always-in direction and trade only in that direction until it changes. Throughout the day and especially around 8:30 a.m. PST, you need to be deciding whether the day resembles any trend pattern described in these books. If it does and you are looking to take any trade, you must take every with-trend trade. Never consider taking a countertrend trade if you haven’t been taking all of the with-trend trades.

  55. The best signal bars are trend bars in the direction of your trade. Doji bars are one-bar trading ranges and therefore usually terrible signal bars. You will usually lose if you buy above a trading range or sell below one.

  56. Most countertrend setups fail, and most with-trend setups succeed. Do the math and decide which you should be trading. Trends constantly form great-looking countertrend setups and lousy-looking with-trend setups. If you trade countertrend, you are gambling and, although you will often win and have fun, the math is against you and you will slowly but surely go broke. Countertrend setups in strong trends almost always fail and become great with-trend setups, especially on the 1 minute chart.

  57. You will not make consistent money until you stop trading countertrend scalps. You will win often enough to keep you trying to improve your technique, but over time your account will slowly disappear. Remember, your risk will likely have to be as large as your profit target, so it will usually take six winners just to get back to breakeven after four losses, and this is a very depressing prospect. Realistically, you should scalp only if you can win 60 percent of the time, and most traders should avoid any trade where the potential reward is not at least as large as the risk. Beginners should scalp only with the trend, if at all.

  58. Until you are consistently profitable, take only trades where your potential reward is at least as large as your risk. If you need to risk two points in the Emini, do not take your profit until you have at least two points. Most traders should not scalp for a reward that is smaller than the risk, because they will lose money even if they win on 60 percent of their trades. Remember the trader’s equation. The chance of winning times your potential reward has to be significantly greater than the chance of losing times your risk. You cannot risk two points to make one point and hope to make a profit unless you are right at least 80 percent of the time, and very few traders are that good.

  59. The trader’s equation has three variables, and any setup with a positive result is a good trade. This can be a trade with a high probability of success and a reward only equal to the risk, one with a low probability of success and a huge reward relative to risk, or anything in between.

  60. Experienced traders can scale into (or out of) trades to improve their trader’s equation. For example, the initial entry might have a relatively low probability of success, but subsequent entries might have significantly higher probabilities, improving the trader’s equation for the entire position.

  61. You will not make money until you start trading with-trend pullbacks.

  62. You will not make money trading reversals until you wait for a break of a significant trend line and then for a strong reversal bar on a test of the trend’s extreme.

  63. You will not make money unless you know what you are doing. Print out the 5 minute Emini chart every day (and stock charts, if you trade stocks) and write on the chart every setup that you see. When you see several price action features, write them all on the chart. Do this every day for years until you can look at any part of any chart and instantly understand what is happening.

  64. You will not make money in the long term until you know enough about your personality to find a trading style that is compatible. You need to be able to follow your rules comfortably, allowing you to enter and exit trades with minimal or no uncertainty or anxiety. Once you have mastered a method of trading, if you feel stress while trading, then you haven’t yet found either your style or yourself.

  65. You will not make money if you lose your discipline and take risky trades in the final couple of hours that you would never take in the first couple of hours. You will invariably give back those earnings from earlier in the day that fooled you into thinking that you are a better trader than you really are.

  66. You are competing against computers. They have the edge of speed, so it is usually best not to trade during a report, because that is when their speed edge is greatest. They also have the edge of not being emotional, so don’t trade when you are upset or distracted. Third, they have the edge of never getting tired, so don’t trade when you are worn out, which often happens at the end of the day.

  67. Always look for two legs. Also, when the market tries to do something twice and fails both times, that is a reliable signal that it will likely succeed in doing the opposite.

  68. Never cherry-pick, because you will invariably pick enough rotten cherries to end up a loser. The good trades catch you by surprise and are easy to miss, and you are then left with the not-so-good trades and the bad trades. Either swing trade and look to take only the best two or three of the best setups of the day or scalp and take every valid setup. The latter, however, is the more difficult alternative and is only for people with very unusual personalities (even more unusual than the rest of us traders!).

  69. Finding winners is easy, but avoiding losers is hard. The key to success is avoiding the losers. There can be far more winners each day than losers, but a few losers can ruin your day, so learn to spot them in advance and avoid them. Most occur: in the middle of the range with weak setup bars, like small dojis with closes in the middle; when you are entering a possible reversal too early (remember, when in doubt, wait for the second entry); when you are in denial of a trend and think that it has gone too far so you start taking 1 or 3 minute reversal entries, which turn into great with-trend setups when they fail (as they invariably will); or, when a very credible, well-credentialed technical analyst from a top firm proclaims on TV that the bottom is in, and you then only see buy setups, which invariably fail because the expert in fact is an idiot who cannot trade (if he could, he would be trading and not proclaiming).

  70. If you are in a trade and it is not doing what you expected, should you get out? Look at the market and pretend that you are flat. If you think that you would put that trade on at this moment, stay in your position. If not, get out.

  71. Do not scalp when you should swing, and do not swing when you should scalp. Until you are consistently profitable, you should keep your trading as simple as possible and swing just one to three trades a day, and do not scalp. To scalp successfully, you usually have to risk about as much as you stand to gain, and that requires that you win on more than 60 percent of your trades. You cannot hope to do that until you are a consistently profitable trader.

  72. If you find that you frequently take swing trades, but quickly convert them to scalps, you will probably lose money. When you take a swing trade, you are willing to accept a lower probability of success, but to make money on a scalp, you need a very high probability of success. Similarly, if you take scalps, but consistently exit early with a profit that is smaller than your risk, you will lose money. If you cannot stop yourself from following your plan, simply rely on your bracket orders and walk away for about an hour after you enter.

  73. If you lost money last month, do not trade any reversals. If seven of the past 10 bars are mostly above the moving average, do not look to short. Instead, only look to buy. If seven of the past 10 bars are mostly below the moving average, do not look to buy. Instead, only look to short.

  74. Beginners should take only the best trades. It is difficult to watch a screen for two or three hours at a time and not place a trade, but this is the best way for beginners to make money.

  75. Discipline is the most important characteristic of winning traders. Trading is easy to understand, but difficult to do. It is very difficult to follow simple rules, and even occasional self-indulgences can mean the difference between success and failure. Anyone can be as mentally tough as Tiger Woods for one shot, but few can be that tough for an entire round, and then be that way for a round every day of their lives. Everyone knows what mental toughness and discipline are and can be mentally tough and disciplined in some activities every day, but few truly appreciate just how extreme and unrelenting you have to be to be a great trader. Develop the discipline to take only the best trades. If you cannot do it for an entire day, force yourself to do it for the first hour of every day, and as you increase your position size, you might find that this is all you need to be a successful trader.

  76. The second most important trait of great traders is the ability to do nothing for hours at a time. Don’t succumb to boredom and let it convince you that it’s been too long since the last trade.

  77. Work on increasing your position size rather than on the number of trades or the variety of setups that you use. You only need to make two points in the Eminis a day to do well (50 contracts at two points a day is seven figures a year).

  78. If you perfect the skills of trading, you can make more money than you could ever have imagined possible, and you will have the ability to live your dreams.

VPS升级 LNMP(Oneinstack版本)设置笔记,重点排除rewrite伪静态问题

这几天抽空把博客升级,用了Oneinstack的套件。大部分的时间用来排除blog的伪静态rewrite。成功了才发现,之前早已经记录过这个问题。

Oneinstack的官网上好像还没有记载。照录在这里。

正常安装。编辑

usr/local/nginx/conf/rewrite/wordpress.conf

代码是这个:

location / {

if (-f $request_filename/index.html){

rewrite (.*) $1/index.html break;
}

if (-f $request_filename/index.php){

rewrite (.*) $1/index.php;
}

if (!-f $request_filename){

rewrite (.*) /blog/index.php;
}

}

要特别注意上面代码的最后,加粗的部分,这里的“blog”的放Wordpress的目录名称。然后重启服务:

service nginx restart

搞定。

没扳机的枪是响不了的——入场要有信号的支持

Trigger Control

  • 主要内容
    • 日线交易要有日线级别K线信号的支持。
    • 即使是回撤入场,也要在入场信号出现之后。

下图中大部分时间中,市场是一个盘整的区间。区间中,只有底部才有进场可能性。由于这个区间太窄了,空间不够,所以区间突破前,任何进场都不是明智的选择。

20160623

区间终究是要被突破的。一个狭长的区间,往往意味着一次有力的突破。棒19开始的尖峰呈现出了很强的力量,几根K显得阳线实体互不重叠,直接突破了前期狭窄的盘整区间。毫无疑问,这次突破是有效的。随后的回踩也是很理想的Pullback形态,力量不强,斜率不大,回踩放缓。一切都顺风顺水,价格在回踩测试棒9的前高。

这个时候,也许会有交易者会按耐不住,难免开始手痒、心急,着急入场,于是被套。价格没有获得任何有效的支撑,直接去测试区间底部了。

事后用上帝视角看,做多当然是错误的。固然,没有任何交易架构拥有100%的胜率,但很多亏损都是可以避免的。上面就是一例。开仓入场要依靠入场信号。具体的入场信号之于交易者,如同发令枪之于运动员。一个运动员,如果不等发令枪响,总是抢跑,不说犯规与否,单是一次次的体力消耗也能在枪响之前就让运动员气力全无。交易也是一样,不等信号直接入场,账户里的资金就会像运动员体内的爆发力,提前无谓消耗,待到有效的信号出现,早已没劲了。

这个图中,尽管盘整-突破-回踩几个大的架构都有,但最后的扳机不存在。回踩中,从日线看没有任何明确的入场信号。如果把回踩看作一个微型的下降趋势,那么趋势线完全没有被突破。棒22的前一棒很关键。如果这一棒不收阴线,而是形成一个下影线较长的Pinbar,K线振幅适中,收盘价又能回到前一棒的阳线实体内,参考之前大的架构,将行程一个非常理想的入场机会。但是,在这个案例中,这个入场信号不存在。棒23的大阴线宣告了做多计划的彻底破产。

这把枪再好看,没有扳机,也注定响不了。端着没有板机的枪打猎,流血是唯一的结果。

总结两句话:

  • 日线交易要有日线级别K线信号的支持。
  • 即使是回撤入场,也要在入场信号出现之后。

读到这里再看一遍图,会不会有了些新的发现?

20160623

文后再说几句。根据Al Brooks的分析,这里还有另一层分析。棒14开始,价格从区间的底部向上形成了三推。棒20前一棒是一个拥有上影线的阳线。上影线很长的K线出现在三推形态中,交易者们会预期后面一棒会再次测试影线顶点。三推中,价格达到影线顶点,顺势刮头皮者会平多,逆势刮头皮者会开空,空方力量会增强,回踩即将展开。——日内五分钟线的交易里及时做出这些分析,需要多年的经验积累和高度集中的注意力。

大格局和小信号的典型结合——一个旗形反转案例

极端的趋势后,市场的振幅被拉开,反转交易往往有利可图。大行情往往不会V型反转,价格运行的力度有一个从强到弱的过程。Al Brooks的书里有一个“最终旗形反转”的案例,比较典型。记录在这里。

Albrooks 20160628

这里的下跌尖峰非常强烈,棒1为什么不需要“等待二次确认”?这与棒1前面的旗形有关。

第一个证据是旗形。旗形意味着犹豫。这是第一个弱势信号。

第二个证据是棒1的实体,棒1拥有一个阳线实体。当然,小小的实体并不足以单独说明什么。

第三个证据是棒1的上下影线。棒1没有上影线,下影线很长。结合多头实体,这是个有意义的反转线。反转线中,最高价收盘意味着次日开盘后拥有继续上行的动能,有助于入场后迅速脱离成本。

入场后,第一目标点位上看到9:00左右的前低是可以的。目测潜在的回报比在2以上。考虑到这次运动的确定性要高于50%,交易者方程是有利的。

按照书中Al Brooks主张,对于此类交易,要波段化处理,至少看“10棒,两条腿”。就这个图来说,开仓后第12棒出现趋势棒阳线。趋势棒收盘以后,交易者应该注意到这样几个事实:

  • 以跳空开盘为一推计算,反转棒发生在开盘后的三推以后- 之前设定的目标位到了
  • 突破了当日开盘后的下降趋势线(未画出),有回踩测试的需要
  • 价格长期运行在EMA均线之下,首次站到均线上面,存在下拉的力量

综合考虑这些因素,开仓后第12棒的趋势棒收盘后,可暂时获利了结。

这是一个比较典型的最终旗形后反转的例子。总结一下一般的经验:

  • 一般而言,反转至少需要二次确认。这个案例中的“二次”,是指“最终旗形”+“单棒反转”。反转交易,孤证不立,要有验证。
  • 反转不能建立于想象,要有大的格局予以支持。这个案例比较典型,具体的技术分析是建立在“三推”、“趋势线突破”等较大的依据为支撑的。
  • 小信号很重要。根据Al Brooks的观点,一个典型的反转棒放到合适的位置,可以带来70%以上的胜率。精确入场,必须有典型信号的支持。

需要反复强调的一点是:通过“个例”论证“经验”,永远是在“以偏概全”。但除了这个路径,似乎并没有更好地写作方法。就算是约翰·墨菲的《期货市场技术分析》,也要运用个例。这是任何一个写作者都逃不开的窠臼。

和Evernote(印象笔记)交流记录

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6月26日,有幸应邀参加了印象笔记的一个聚会,和Evernote全球CEO Chris O’Neill、中国区(印象笔记)CEO 唐毅Raymond进行了面对面的交流。真正的互联网企业的管理者不应该是守着没有门槛的领域谈理想,也不应该是不顾产品的精神数用户。这方面,印象笔记做出了很好的表率。记录几条当时的谈话。这不是一篇广告,但我真心希望能有越来越多的用户使用Evernote(印象笔记),改变自己的生活。

慎重进行产品迭代

Evernote的大版本更新非常慎重,功能迭代一定是通过由小到大的累进实现的。Evernote不会因为“用户提需求”就对产品功能做出快速反应。企业内部要根据需求的合理性去评估具体的变化对产品整体的影响。一个具体的例子是,Evernote至今都没有“无限层级目录”这种功能,这就是对于“用户需求”的有效过滤。

中国区的“印象笔记”产品也不会片面的对标竞品,“丰富和完善”自身的产品功能。除了部分本土化的设置以外,完全与美国总部的产品架构保持一致。这不是懒惰,也不是迟钝,而是一种明确的价值观——爬雪山,慢就是快。

Evernote的用户数据是安全的,

Evernote也好,印象笔记也罢,至今未能对输出端进行丰富的开发,其共享、分享功能基本没有什么变化。这是有意为之的策略。目的是为了避免被定义为“社交软件”进而接受专属于“社交软件”的监管。唐毅特别提到,具体的事情就不要发在网上了。在这里,暂时只能这样说:Evernote(印象笔记)目前不具备太多“社交”属性,用户数据因此而安全。

数据是用户所有的

和Raymond谈到一个话题,不同的笔记软件对比,似乎只有Evernote的数据库格式可以自由的导出、迁移、转化,而有道、Wiz等均不行。Raymond介绍,Evernote内部是有明确的价值观的,用户的数据就是用户的,不是企业的。Evernote永远不会以使用深度和黏性要挟客户持续使用。每一个客户都有权利随时将数据导出,另作他用。说到底,数据是用户所有的。这是一个铁律,绝不会被突破。

彻底的推进API对外开放

Evernote目前完全开放了API,所有无数的App才能有“导出到印象笔记”这个功能。这一点上,Evernote领先于市场。Raymond介绍,这与目前“去社交化”的策略有关——“输出”一端被弱化了,就集中注意力把“输入”做得更便捷。

市场开拓注重维度拓展,而非线性扩张

这是我自己的感觉,不是管理层的谈话。Evernote目前的工作重点并不是单纯意义上的“地推”式扩张。国内用户做到2000万档位的今天,更多的拓展工作放在了和关联领域的企业进行多角度的合作。例如,近期和新东方的合作就是一例。Evernote在做的事情更像是“潜在客户的挖掘”,而非技术含量较低的“码人头”

技术上,以“借助技术,深化认知”为大方向

进一步改善存储与分享不是Evernote的前进方向。Evernote的未来将建立在借助人工智能技术帮助客户提升认知效率上。一方面,有学习意愿和学习习惯的客户将会借助Evernote获得更高的学习效率,另一方面,基础客户也将体会到技术力量对日常生活的改变。这一切将以最前沿的AI技术为基础,这是美国总部目前的主要努力方向。

孤证不立——交易中的“决斗线”

梁启超在谈及清代正统考据时曾说到“孤证不立”原则:

孤证不为定说。其无反证者姑存之,得有续证则渐信之,遇有力之反证则弃之。——梁启超

翻译成白话:

单独的依据不能做数。如果(单独的)依据没有反证,那么就先放着;如果有了后续的辅证,则可以更多的认可一些;如果有了强有力的反证,则直接抛弃。

无独有偶,交易中也有“决斗线”一说,一个较为长期的交易依据(常常是趋势线、支撑阻力位等)和一个较为短期的交易依据(楔形、三推等各种小周期的形态)在一个很小的区间内交叉,这时候形成的交易信号从长期、短期的角度看都有意义——这就是所谓的“决斗”。“决斗”的本质是双重验证。“孤证不立”,两个不同角度、不同逻辑的依据相互验证,命中率可以有效地提升。

1

Al Brooks的书中有两个比较典型的例子。

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如上图,注意数字3、4、5之间的形态。无论我们把它当做一个旗形还是通道还是盘整,这都无所谓。棒5 overshoot了之前的通道线——这是第一个信号。1–5的横线是第二个信号,提示了一个双重底。这是第二个信号。其实这个图里还有没有标记的第三重“决斗”:棒3前面几棒形成一个底,棒5假突破了一下。当然,单纯看棒5及其前面的1棒,并列的两个长下影线本身也是更小周期中的一个双重底,这可能是第四个依据了。

有了这几重验证,棒5就是一个可靠的做多信号了。尽管前面是密密麻麻的重叠K线,出现强多头趋势的可能并不大,但一个1:1的交易空间还是存在的。“决斗线”有效提升了胜率,交易者方程依然是好的。

再看第二个例子。

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棒1形成了双棒反转形态,overshoot了小图中的下跌尖峰通道线。这是第一个信号。同时,overshoot了当日开盘后低点的通道线(204–205位置趋势线的平行线)和更早低点引出的通道线(5月9日早晨开盘后的低点起)。

目测一下,如果以上面的趋势线(短线)为目标位,回报比大概在2倍略少。胜率如果能在40%以上,期望就是正的。考虑到有三重验证的因素,胜率至少50%以上,交易是可行的。当然,这个例子中有一点不足,“决斗”的逻辑是同一个,全部都是趋势通道线的overshoot。如果可以用其他的逻辑予以验证,胜率可以进一步提高。

2

看一下实盘。

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铁矿主连,2015年下半年。417这个反转棒同时涉及到了长期下降通道的趋势线、前期支撑阻力区间、反弹旗形的通道线三重“决斗”,决斗逻辑各不相同,时间周期错配。这就是更可靠的情况了。

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白糖1701,2016年5月。箭头处的反转棒背靠前期的支撑阻力区,同时与通道的趋势线“决斗”。同时,还有均线辅助验证。这也是一个胜率较高的入场。第一目标位即使设在前高,空间也可以达到1.5倍,考虑到大于50%的胜率,交易可行。

3

一个失败的验证即足以证伪,但是不论多少肯定的例子都不足以证实。——索罗斯

把握“孤证不立”原则可以提升胜率,但交易中没有必然。无论多少证据验证,无论有多大的把握,交易的胜率都永远不会是100%。

每一个交易者都要牢记:无论“决斗”多么热闹,永远不要重仓,更不要满仓。小心假设,小心求证,小心开仓,尽量站在确定性的一遍,小心地去赌、去赢。

不要在较小时间框架上寻找反转

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时间会改变风险,风险的本质由时间的范围来塑造:未来就是赌场。 ——《与天为敌:风险探索传奇》

这几天观察工业品的价格变化。一轮暴涨之后一轮急跌,这几天出现了止跌的迹象。

螺纹钢的价格变动最具有迷惑性。昨天的大阴线揭开了谜底。

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铁矿石就清晰多了,还是弱。

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橡胶前期持续多年的下跌力量更强,没什么像样的反弹。但七八个交易日前的日线反转组合像模像样,单看k线,也有些诱人。

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盘面显示,很多人在参与这几天工业品的反转。后续如何运动我们不知道,但昨天的一根大阴线显示,价格向下运动的力量依然很强。

正巧,今天读 Al Brooks,看到了一个类似的形态。

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这副图表的标题是——“不要在较小时间框架图表上寻找反转”。

为什么“不要在较小时间框架图表上寻找反转”?

交易要做到“量、价、时、空”四个要素的统一。除了常见的价格和成交量,还要有时间和空间的配合。从时间上看,这一轮的下跌持续了一个多月的时间,所谓的“反转”、“反弹”,也就是几个交易日。几天对比几周,时间上不足以形成反转。从空间上看,这一轮的下跌幅度是这几天振幅的多倍,空间上完全不成比例。即使仅仅看价格,下跌的日线形态很强,力道十足。这几天的“反转”也要,“见底”也好,都是难以与之对抗的。因此,无论从什么角度看看,“反转”都没有凑齐成立的理由。

技术上,反转有很多必要的条件。在展开具体的技术分析前,稳定的时间框架是一个基本前提。 Al Brooks 在书里反复强调,不能弄混不同的时间框架。交易员不能因为先验的立场就用更小的时间框架去寻找入场的理由。弄混了时间框架,找到的理由大多是本不存在的。附会出来的入场“依据”,其本质都是“打哪指哪”、“自说自话”,不具备现实价值。

“时间能治愈一切。”在交易中,唯有时间能够消化、反转暴涨暴跌。一切反转,都需要反复的震荡、筑底、尝试、证伪。脱离了稳定、统一的时间框架,技术分析的可靠性无从谈起。毕竟,未来就是赌场 ——时间会改变风险,风险的本质由时间的范围来塑造。

Al Brooks 有一个经典的公式“大幅上涨+大幅下跌=大的混乱=交易区间”。区间的宿命是被突破。问题是,我们能不能等到下一个趋势来临之前,少流血,甚至不流血。——这是每一个趋势交易者的毕生功课。