作者归档:康健

Al Brooks的78条交易指引

这78条提示,是Al Brooks三本书中反转篇的结尾。字字珠玑,照录如下。致敬Al Brooks。

  1. Reading these 570,000 words is like reading a detailed manual on how to do anything, such as playing golf or a violin. It takes a lot of hard work to turn the information into the ability to make a living as a trader, but it is impossible without understanding how markets work. Like being a professional golfer or violinist, no matter how good you get, you always want to be better, so the challenge and satisfaction last long after you become consistently profitable.

  2. Everything that you see is in a gray fog. Nothing is perfectly clear. Close is close enough. If something looks like a reliable pattern, it will likely trade like a reliable pattern.

  3. There is no easy set of reliable rules to make money as a trader, and everything is subjective. This is a zero-sum game with very smart players, so when an edge exists, it is small and fleeting. For a trader to make money, he has to be consistently better than half of the other traders out there (or more accurately, trade a positive trader’s equation more than half of the time). Since most of the competitors are profitable institutions, a trader has to be very good. However, edges appear constantly, and if you learn to spot them and understand how to trade them, you are in a position to make money.

  4. The edge can never get very large because institutions would take advantage of it as it was growing. A trade cannot have a high probability of making a big reward relative to the risk.

  5. Reading charts well is difficult, but it is only half of what you need to know to make money. You also need to learn to trade, which is just as difficult. Trading successfully always has been and will always continue to be hard to do, no matter what method you use. If there were an easy way to make money, everyone would do it and then there would be no trapped traders to drive the market to your target. Read a book that teaches you how to play the violin and then go out to see if the world will give you money to hear you play. Just because you understand how to do something does not mean that you can do it effectively, especially if it is difficult to do.

  6. A trader needs a mathematical advantage to make money. At every moment, there is always a mathematical edge for both a long and a short trade, but the edges are usually not clear. When they are relatively clear, they are fleeting and small. However, those are the times when traders need to place their trades.

  7. The ability to spot trades that have a positive trader’s equation is the key to success. That can mean buying above a bar on a stop, selling above a bar with a limit order, buying below a bar with a limit order, or selling below a bar on a stop.

  8. The single most important determination that a trader makes, and he makes this after the close of every bar, is whether there will be more buyers or sellers above and below the prior bar. This is particularly true with breakouts and failed breakouts, because the move that follows usually determines the always-in direction and therefore lasts for many points and is not just a scalp.

  9. Every time you buy above the high of the prior bar on a stop, someone else is shorting there with a limit order. When you sell one tick below the low of the prior bar, there is a strong bull who is taking the other side of your trade. Always remember that nothing is certain, and the edge is always small because there are smart people who believe the exact opposite of what you do.

  10. Every bar, even a strong trend bar, is a signal bar for both directions, and the market can begin a trend up or down on the next bar. Be open to all possibilities, including the exact opposite of what you expect, and when the surprise happens, don’t question or deny it. Just read it and trade it.

  11. Every time you look to enter a setup, make sure to consider what the market is telling you if instead it breaks out of the opposite end of the signal bar. Sometimes that buy setup that you see might in fact also be a great sell setup because it will trap longs who will cover below the low of the signal or entry bars.

  12. Understanding trend bars that create breakouts is one of the most important skills that a trader can acquire. Traders need to be able to assess whether a breakout is likely to succeed, or it will be met with profit taking and a pullback, or it will be followed by a reversal.

  13. Look for signs of strength and weakness and weigh them to determine if they give you an edge. If you see the market doing something, assess how strong the setup is. Did it fail to take an opportunity to do something strong? If so, the setup is weaker.

  14. Whenever you are positive that your setup is good, don’t take the trade. You are missing something. You don’t see what the person who is taking the other side of your trade is seeing, and that person is just as smart as you are. Be humble. If you are too confident, your arrogance will make you lose because you will be using unrealistically high probabilities in your evaluation of the trader’s equation.

  15. Much of life is not what it seems. In fact, the famous mathematician Charles Lutwidge Dodgson was not what he seemed to be and is better known as Lewis Carroll. We work in an Alice in Wonderland world where nothing is really as it seems. Up is not always up and down is not always down. Just look at most strong breakouts of trading ranges—they usually fail, and up is really the start of down and down is really just part of up. Also, 60 percent is 60 percent in only 90 percent of the cases and can be 90 percent sometimes and 10 percent at other times. If a good setup is 60 percent, how can you win 80 percent or more of the time? Well, in a pullback in a strong trend just above support, a setup might work 60 percent of the time, but if you can scale in as the market goes lower, especially if your subsequent entries are larger, you might find that you win in 80 percent or more of those 60 percent setups. Also, if you use a very wide stop and are willing to sit through a large drawdown for a couple of hours, that 60 percent chance of making two points before losing two points in the Emini might be a 90 percent chance of making four points before losing eight points. If you are flexible and comfortable with constantly changing probabilities and many probabilities coexisting, your chance of success is much greater.

  16. The single most important thing that you can do all day is talk yourself out of bad trades. For example, if it is a trading range day, don’t look to buy after a strong bull trend bar or a high 1 near the top of the range, and don’t look to short after a strong bear trend bar or low 1 near the bottom of the range.

  17. The market constantly exhibits inertia and tends to continue what it has just been doing. If it is in a trend, 80 percent of the attempts to reverse it will fail and lead to a flag and then a resumption of the trend. If it is in a trading range, 80 percent of the attempts to break out into a trend will fail.

  18. If ever you feel twisted inside because a pullback is going too far, you are likely mistakenly seeing a pullback when in fact the trend has reversed.

  19. If you think the market rationally should be going up, but instead it is offering you a strong sell setup, take it. Trade the trade that you have and not the one that you want or expect, because “the market can stay irrational much longer than you can stay solvent” (a quote attributed to John Maynard Keynes).

  20. Price is truth. Never argue with what the market is telling you. For a day trader, fundamentals are almost entirely useless. The market will tell you where it is going and it cannot hide what it is doing. Neither you nor the experts on television can know how the market will react to the fundamentals, although those experts often speak with certainty. Since the market is rarely more than 60 percent certain of anything, whenever pundits speak with certainty, they are ignoring math and therefore the most basic characteristic of the market. If you follow someone who is indifferent to or ignorant of how markets work, you will lose money.

  21. Everything makes sense. If you know how to read price action, nothing will surprise you, because you will understand what the market is doing. Beginners can see it on a printout at the end of the day. The goal is to learn how to read fast enough so that you can understand what is happening in real time.

  22. “It’s not fair!” If that is how you are feeling, take a break from trading. You are absolutely right—it is not fair, but that is because it is all based on mathematics, and fairness is never one of the variables. If you are concerned about fairness, you are not synchronized with the market. Computer programs control all market activity, and they have no concept of fairness; they never get tired, they don’t remember what their last trade was, and they are relentlessly objective. Since they are making money, you need to try to emulate their qualities. They cannot hide what they are doing, and your job is to see what they are doing and then copy them. Yes, you will enter after their first entry, but they will continue to enter after you do, and they are the force that will drive the market far enough to give you your profit.

  23. Price action is based on human behavior and therefore has a genetic basis. This is why it works in all markets in all countries and on all time frames and it has always worked and always will inescapably reflect human behavior, at least until we evolve into a new species.

  24. Always have a protective stop in the market because it protects you from the greatest danger you will ever face as a trader. That danger is not the market, which could not care less whether you win or lose, never knows that you exist, and is never out to get you. It is yourself, and all of your inadequacies as a trader, including denial, arrogance, and a lack of discipline.

  25. Thinking is very difficult. Losers prefer instead to look with religious zeal for a savior who will protect them from losing money. Saviors can be confident, impressive experts with outstanding credentials on TV, famous writers of newsletters, chat room leaders, indicators, or any other external idol into which traders infuse the power to protect them and take them to the Promised Land. Instead, they will all slowly suck the last dollar from your account. You will not make money until you do your own analysis and ignore all external influences that promise you success, but in fact exist only to make money for themselves and not you. The experts on TV hope to establish credibility that they can use to sell their services or get a promotion, the TV station makes money off commercials, the chat room and newsletter people sell their services, and the software company that gives you indicators does so for a fee. No one is going to help you in the long run, so never fool yourself into believing that you can make money with the help of all of those nice people.

  26. Those who talk don’t know and those who know don’t talk. Don’t watch TV or read any news.

  27. If you find that you did not take a couple of Emini trades in a row and they worked, you are likely trading too large a position size. Switch to trading 100 to 300 shares of SPY and swing for at least 20 to 50 cents. Even though you won’t get rich, at least you will make some money and build your confidence. If you think that you can comfortably trade three Emini contracts per trade, then you should trade just one. This will make it much easier for you to take every signal. If you trade three Eminis, you will let many good signals go because you really are comfortable trading only three contracts in the rare case of a perfect signal. You need to be trading a size where you are comfortable with any decent signal and remain comfortable if you lose two or three times in a row. One indicator of this comfort is your ability to take the next trade after those losses. If you feel too uncomfortable and are really waiting for perfection, you are still trading too much volume. Once you start cherry-picking, you are on the path to a blown account. Your emotions are a burden and give an edge to your opponents, as is the case in any competition.

  28. “I don’t care!” That is the most useful mantra. I don’t care if I lose on this trade, because I am trading a small enough size that a loss will not upset me and cloud my judgment. I don’t care what the experts are saying on TV or in the Wall Street Journal. I don’t care what is happening on the 3 and 1 minute charts or on volume or tick charts, and I don’t care about missing all of the wonderful signals that those charts are generating, because if the trades really are good, they will lead to 5 minute signals as well. I don’t care that the market is way overdone and is due for a correction. I don’t care about indicators, especially squiggly lines that show divergences in a huge trend (meanwhile, there has been no trend line break), but I do care about the one chart in front of me and what it is telling me. I also care about following my rules and not allowing any outside influence talk me out of doing what my rules are telling me.

  29. If you are afraid of taking a great trade because your stop would have to be too far, reduce your position size to maybe a quarter of normal so that your total dollar risk is no larger than for your usual trades. You need to get into the “I don’t care” mode to be able to take these trades. By cutting your position size, you can focus on the quality of the setup instead of being preoccupied with the dollars that you can lose if the trade fails. However, first spot a good setup before adopting the “I don’t care” mind-set, because you don’t want to be so apathetic about the dollars that you begin to take weak setups and then go on to lose money.

  30. The market is never certain when it has gone far enough, but it is always certain when it has gone too far. Most reversals require excess before traders believe that the reversal will work. Market inertia can be stopped only by excess.

  31. It is difficult to reverse a position. For most traders, it is far better to exit, even with a loss, and then look for another setup in the new direction.

  32. There are no reliable countertrend patterns so, unless you are a consistently profitable trader, never trade countertrend unless there first has been a strong break of a significant trend line, and the signal is a reasonable setup for an always-in reversal. When you are shorting below that great bear reversal bar in a strong bull trend, far smarter traders are buying with limit orders at the low of your signal bar. When you are buying on a stop above a bull reversal bar in a strong bear trend, smarter traders are shorting exactly where you are buying. Since 80 percent of reversals fail, who do you think is making the money?

  33. Any reversal setup is a good reason to take partial or full profits, but the setup has to be strong if you are considering a countertrend trade. Since 80 percent of reversals fail, it is far better to view each top as the start of a bull flag and each bottom as the start of a bear flag.

  34. Too early is always worse than too late. Since most reversals and breakouts fail, an early entry will likely fail. Since most trends go a long way, entering late is usually still a good trade.

  35. All patterns fail and the failures often fail, and when they do, they create a breakout pullback in the original direction and have a high probability of success.

  36. When you see that one side is suddenly trapped, the reliability of a scalp in the opposite direction goes up. Trapped traders will be forced out as you are getting in, and they will likely wait for more price action before entering again in their original direction, so the only traders left will be in your direction.

  37. Seeing traders getting trapped out of a trade on a stop run is as reliable a signal as seeing them getting trapped in a trade. If the market suddenly runs stops and then resumes its trend, this is a reliable setup for at least a scalper’s profit.

  38. Wait. If the market has not given any signals for 30 to 60 minutes and you find yourself checking your e-mail or talking on the phone with your daughter away at college, and suddenly the market makes a large bull trend bar that breaks out of a trading range, wait. You’ve lost touch with the market and it is trying to trap you in. Never make a quick decision to place a trade, especially on a sudden, large trend bar. If it turns into a great trade and you miss it, you will still be ahead overall because the odds are against you when you take trades under these circumstances. Yes, some will be winners, but if you review all of the times that you took these trades, you will discover that you lost money.

  39. You don’t have to trade. You goal as a trader is to make money, not to make trades, so take a trade only when it will help you achieve your goal. There will be many other signals all day long, so wait for a good one, and don’t be upset when you miss good trades. Many beginners want excitement and tend to overtrade. Many great traders find trading to be lonely and boring, but very profitable. Everyone wants to trade, but you should want to make money more than you want to trade. You should take only trades that are likely to make money, not simply relieve your tension from not having placed a trade in an hour or two.

  40. Simple is better. You don’t need indicators, and you should look at only one chart. If you can’t make money off a single chart with no indicators, adding more things to analyze will just make it more difficult. Also, trade only the very best setups until you are consistently profitable. The single biggest problem with using two charts is that there is a natural tendency to take only signals that occur simultaneously on both charts, which rarely happens. You end up rejecting most of the day’s great signals because the second chart does not have a signal or the signal occurred two ticks earlier. For example, if you see a great high 2 pullback to the exponential moving average in a bull trend on the 5 minute chart and then look at the 2 or 3 minute chart and see that it gave an entry two ticks earlier, you might not take the 5 minute entry because you will be afraid that the move will stop at the 2 minute scalper’s target and never reach the 5 minute target.

  41. Decide whether this is a hobby or a job. If it is a hobby, find another one because this one will be too expensive and it is dangerously addictive. All great traders are likely trading addicts, but most trading addicts will likely end up broke.

  42. Begin trading using a 5 minute chart, entering on a pullback and using a stop order for your entry. When the market is in a bull trend, look to buy above a bull bar at the moving average. When it is in a bear trend, look to short below a bear bar at the moving average. Take some or all off on a limit order at a profit target around the prior extreme of the trend, and then move the protective stop to breakeven on any remaining contracts.

  43. When starting out, you should consider trading the SPY instead of the Emini. One Emini is virtually identical to 500 SPY shares, and trading 200 to 500 SPY shares would allow you to scale out as you swing part of your trade, yet not incur much risk. Once you reach 1,000 to 1,500 SPY shares, if you are thinking that you will continue to increase your position size, then switch to the Emini. At that size, you can scale out of the Emini and you can increase your position size tremendously without slippage being a significant issue.

  44. Buy low and sell high, except in a clear and strong trend (see Part I in book 1 on trends). In a bull trend, buy high 2 setups even if they are at the high of the day; in a bear trend, sell low 2 setups. However, the market is in a trading range for the vast majority of the time. For example, if the market has been going up for a few bars and there is now a buy signal near the top of this leg up, ask yourself if you believe that the market is in one of the established clear and strong bull trend patterns described in these books. If you cannot convince yourself that it is, don’t buy high, even if the momentum looks great, since the odds are great that you will be trapped. Remember Warren Buffett’s version of the old saw, “Be afraid when others are greedy and be greedy when others are afraid.”

  45. The two most important feelings for the media and for beginners are fear and greed. Profitable traders feel neither. For them, the two most important feelings are uncertainty (confusion) and urgency, and they use both to make money. Every bar and every segment of every market is either a trend or a trading range. When a trader is certain, the market is in a strong trend. When he feels a sense of urgency, like he wants to buy as the market is going up (or short as it is going down) but is desperate for a pullback, the market is in a strong trend. He will buy at least a small position at the market instead of waiting for a pullback.

  46. When a trader is uncertain or confused, the market is in a trading range and he should only buy low and sell high. If he wants to take many trades, only scalp. Uncertainty means that the market has a lot of two-sided trading and therefore might be forming a trading range. Since most breakout attempts fail, it is better to only look to short if you are uncertain and the market is up for five to 10 bars, and only look for longs when it is down for five to 10 bars.

  47. When there is a trading range, buy low means that if the market is near the bottom of the range and you are short, you can buy back your short for a profit, and if there is a strong buy signal, you can buy to initiate a long. Likewise, when the market is toward the top of the range, you sell high. This selling can be to take your profit on your long, or, if there is a good short setup, you can sell to initiate a short position.

  48. Good fill, bad trade. Always be suspicious if the market lets you in or out at a price that is better than you anticipated. The corollary of bad fill, good trade is not as reliable.

  49. The first hour or two is usually the easiest time to make money, because the swings tend to be large and there are not many doji bars. The first hour is the easiest time to lose money as well, because you are overly confident about how easy it might be, and you don’t follow your rules carefully. The first hour usually has many reversals, so patiently wait for a swing setup, which will generally have less than a 50 percent chance of success but a potential reward that is at least twice as large as the risk. Experienced traders can scalp. If you don’t follow your rules and are in the red, you’ve missed the easiest time of the day to make money, which means that you will be unhappy all day as you hope to get back to breakeven in trading that is much slower and less profitable.

  50. If you are down on the day and you are now in the second half of the day, it can feel like you are swimming in quicksand—the harder you try to get out, the deeper you sink. Even great traders simply fail to connect emotionally with the flow of the market some days and they will occasionally lose, even though a printout of the 5 minute chart at the end of the day will be shockingly clear. The smartest thing to do is just make sure that you follow your rules into the close, and you will likely win back some of your losses. The worst thing to do is to modify your trading style, which is probably why you are down on the day. Don’t increase your position size and start trading lower-probability setups. If you have an approach that makes you money, stick with it and you will earn back your loss tomorrow. Using a different approach will only cost you more.

  51. Beginners should avoid trading in the middle of the day when the market is in the middle of a day’s range, especially if the moving average is relatively flat and the trading range is tight and has prominent tails (barbwire). When you are about to take any trade, always ask yourself if the setup is one of the best of the day. Is this the one that the institutions have been waiting for all day? If the answer is no and you are not a consistently profitable trader, then you should not take the trade, either.

  52. A tight trading range is the worst environment for entering on stops. The institutions are doing the opposite, and you will consistently lose if you insist on trading, hoping that a trend is about to begin.

  53. A tight trading range trumps everything. That means that it is more important than every good reason that you have to buy or sell. Unless you are a great trader, once you sense that a tight trading range might be forming, force yourself to not take any trades, even if you don’t trade for hours.

  54. Every bar and every series of bars is either a trend or a trading range. Pick one. Decide on the always-in direction and trade only in that direction until it changes. Throughout the day and especially around 8:30 a.m. PST, you need to be deciding whether the day resembles any trend pattern described in these books. If it does and you are looking to take any trade, you must take every with-trend trade. Never consider taking a countertrend trade if you haven’t been taking all of the with-trend trades.

  55. The best signal bars are trend bars in the direction of your trade. Doji bars are one-bar trading ranges and therefore usually terrible signal bars. You will usually lose if you buy above a trading range or sell below one.

  56. Most countertrend setups fail, and most with-trend setups succeed. Do the math and decide which you should be trading. Trends constantly form great-looking countertrend setups and lousy-looking with-trend setups. If you trade countertrend, you are gambling and, although you will often win and have fun, the math is against you and you will slowly but surely go broke. Countertrend setups in strong trends almost always fail and become great with-trend setups, especially on the 1 minute chart.

  57. You will not make consistent money until you stop trading countertrend scalps. You will win often enough to keep you trying to improve your technique, but over time your account will slowly disappear. Remember, your risk will likely have to be as large as your profit target, so it will usually take six winners just to get back to breakeven after four losses, and this is a very depressing prospect. Realistically, you should scalp only if you can win 60 percent of the time, and most traders should avoid any trade where the potential reward is not at least as large as the risk. Beginners should scalp only with the trend, if at all.

  58. Until you are consistently profitable, take only trades where your potential reward is at least as large as your risk. If you need to risk two points in the Emini, do not take your profit until you have at least two points. Most traders should not scalp for a reward that is smaller than the risk, because they will lose money even if they win on 60 percent of their trades. Remember the trader’s equation. The chance of winning times your potential reward has to be significantly greater than the chance of losing times your risk. You cannot risk two points to make one point and hope to make a profit unless you are right at least 80 percent of the time, and very few traders are that good.

  59. The trader’s equation has three variables, and any setup with a positive result is a good trade. This can be a trade with a high probability of success and a reward only equal to the risk, one with a low probability of success and a huge reward relative to risk, or anything in between.

  60. Experienced traders can scale into (or out of) trades to improve their trader’s equation. For example, the initial entry might have a relatively low probability of success, but subsequent entries might have significantly higher probabilities, improving the trader’s equation for the entire position.

  61. You will not make money until you start trading with-trend pullbacks.

  62. You will not make money trading reversals until you wait for a break of a significant trend line and then for a strong reversal bar on a test of the trend’s extreme.

  63. You will not make money unless you know what you are doing. Print out the 5 minute Emini chart every day (and stock charts, if you trade stocks) and write on the chart every setup that you see. When you see several price action features, write them all on the chart. Do this every day for years until you can look at any part of any chart and instantly understand what is happening.

  64. You will not make money in the long term until you know enough about your personality to find a trading style that is compatible. You need to be able to follow your rules comfortably, allowing you to enter and exit trades with minimal or no uncertainty or anxiety. Once you have mastered a method of trading, if you feel stress while trading, then you haven’t yet found either your style or yourself.

  65. You will not make money if you lose your discipline and take risky trades in the final couple of hours that you would never take in the first couple of hours. You will invariably give back those earnings from earlier in the day that fooled you into thinking that you are a better trader than you really are.

  66. You are competing against computers. They have the edge of speed, so it is usually best not to trade during a report, because that is when their speed edge is greatest. They also have the edge of not being emotional, so don’t trade when you are upset or distracted. Third, they have the edge of never getting tired, so don’t trade when you are worn out, which often happens at the end of the day.

  67. Always look for two legs. Also, when the market tries to do something twice and fails both times, that is a reliable signal that it will likely succeed in doing the opposite.

  68. Never cherry-pick, because you will invariably pick enough rotten cherries to end up a loser. The good trades catch you by surprise and are easy to miss, and you are then left with the not-so-good trades and the bad trades. Either swing trade and look to take only the best two or three of the best setups of the day or scalp and take every valid setup. The latter, however, is the more difficult alternative and is only for people with very unusual personalities (even more unusual than the rest of us traders!).

  69. Finding winners is easy, but avoiding losers is hard. The key to success is avoiding the losers. There can be far more winners each day than losers, but a few losers can ruin your day, so learn to spot them in advance and avoid them. Most occur: in the middle of the range with weak setup bars, like small dojis with closes in the middle; when you are entering a possible reversal too early (remember, when in doubt, wait for the second entry); when you are in denial of a trend and think that it has gone too far so you start taking 1 or 3 minute reversal entries, which turn into great with-trend setups when they fail (as they invariably will); or, when a very credible, well-credentialed technical analyst from a top firm proclaims on TV that the bottom is in, and you then only see buy setups, which invariably fail because the expert in fact is an idiot who cannot trade (if he could, he would be trading and not proclaiming).

  70. If you are in a trade and it is not doing what you expected, should you get out? Look at the market and pretend that you are flat. If you think that you would put that trade on at this moment, stay in your position. If not, get out.

  71. Do not scalp when you should swing, and do not swing when you should scalp. Until you are consistently profitable, you should keep your trading as simple as possible and swing just one to three trades a day, and do not scalp. To scalp successfully, you usually have to risk about as much as you stand to gain, and that requires that you win on more than 60 percent of your trades. You cannot hope to do that until you are a consistently profitable trader.

  72. If you find that you frequently take swing trades, but quickly convert them to scalps, you will probably lose money. When you take a swing trade, you are willing to accept a lower probability of success, but to make money on a scalp, you need a very high probability of success. Similarly, if you take scalps, but consistently exit early with a profit that is smaller than your risk, you will lose money. If you cannot stop yourself from following your plan, simply rely on your bracket orders and walk away for about an hour after you enter.

  73. If you lost money last month, do not trade any reversals. If seven of the past 10 bars are mostly above the moving average, do not look to short. Instead, only look to buy. If seven of the past 10 bars are mostly below the moving average, do not look to buy. Instead, only look to short.

  74. Beginners should take only the best trades. It is difficult to watch a screen for two or three hours at a time and not place a trade, but this is the best way for beginners to make money.

  75. Discipline is the most important characteristic of winning traders. Trading is easy to understand, but difficult to do. It is very difficult to follow simple rules, and even occasional self-indulgences can mean the difference between success and failure. Anyone can be as mentally tough as Tiger Woods for one shot, but few can be that tough for an entire round, and then be that way for a round every day of their lives. Everyone knows what mental toughness and discipline are and can be mentally tough and disciplined in some activities every day, but few truly appreciate just how extreme and unrelenting you have to be to be a great trader. Develop the discipline to take only the best trades. If you cannot do it for an entire day, force yourself to do it for the first hour of every day, and as you increase your position size, you might find that this is all you need to be a successful trader.

  76. The second most important trait of great traders is the ability to do nothing for hours at a time. Don’t succumb to boredom and let it convince you that it’s been too long since the last trade.

  77. Work on increasing your position size rather than on the number of trades or the variety of setups that you use. You only need to make two points in the Eminis a day to do well (50 contracts at two points a day is seven figures a year).

  78. If you perfect the skills of trading, you can make more money than you could ever have imagined possible, and you will have the ability to live your dreams.

VPS升级 LNMP(Oneinstack版本)设置笔记,重点排除rewrite伪静态问题

这几天抽空把博客升级,用了Oneinstack的套件。大部分的时间用来排除blog的伪静态rewrite。成功了才发现,之前早已经记录过这个问题。

Oneinstack的官网上好像还没有记载。照录在这里。

正常安装。编辑

usr/local/nginx/conf/rewrite/wordpress.conf

代码是这个:

location / {

if (-f $request_filename/index.html){

rewrite (.*) $1/index.html break;
}

if (-f $request_filename/index.php){

rewrite (.*) $1/index.php;
}

if (!-f $request_filename){

rewrite (.*) /blog/index.php;
}

}

要特别注意上面代码的最后,加粗的部分,这里的“blog”的放Wordpress的目录名称。然后重启服务:

service nginx restart

搞定。

没扳机的枪是响不了的——入场要有信号的支持

Trigger Control

  • 主要内容
    • 日线交易要有日线级别K线信号的支持。
    • 即使是回撤入场,也要在入场信号出现之后。

下图中大部分时间中,市场是一个盘整的区间。区间中,只有底部才有进场可能性。由于这个区间太窄了,空间不够,所以区间突破前,任何进场都不是明智的选择。

20160623

区间终究是要被突破的。一个狭长的区间,往往意味着一次有力的突破。棒19开始的尖峰呈现出了很强的力量,几根K显得阳线实体互不重叠,直接突破了前期狭窄的盘整区间。毫无疑问,这次突破是有效的。随后的回踩也是很理想的Pullback形态,力量不强,斜率不大,回踩放缓。一切都顺风顺水,价格在回踩测试棒9的前高。

这个时候,也许会有交易者会按耐不住,难免开始手痒、心急,着急入场,于是被套。价格没有获得任何有效的支撑,直接去测试区间底部了。

事后用上帝视角看,做多当然是错误的。固然,没有任何交易架构拥有100%的胜率,但很多亏损都是可以避免的。上面就是一例。开仓入场要依靠入场信号。具体的入场信号之于交易者,如同发令枪之于运动员。一个运动员,如果不等发令枪响,总是抢跑,不说犯规与否,单是一次次的体力消耗也能在枪响之前就让运动员气力全无。交易也是一样,不等信号直接入场,账户里的资金就会像运动员体内的爆发力,提前无谓消耗,待到有效的信号出现,早已没劲了。

这个图中,尽管盘整-突破-回踩几个大的架构都有,但最后的扳机不存在。回踩中,从日线看没有任何明确的入场信号。如果把回踩看作一个微型的下降趋势,那么趋势线完全没有被突破。棒22的前一棒很关键。如果这一棒不收阴线,而是形成一个下影线较长的Pinbar,K线振幅适中,收盘价又能回到前一棒的阳线实体内,参考之前大的架构,将行程一个非常理想的入场机会。但是,在这个案例中,这个入场信号不存在。棒23的大阴线宣告了做多计划的彻底破产。

这把枪再好看,没有扳机,也注定响不了。端着没有板机的枪打猎,流血是唯一的结果。

总结两句话:

  • 日线交易要有日线级别K线信号的支持。
  • 即使是回撤入场,也要在入场信号出现之后。

读到这里再看一遍图,会不会有了些新的发现?

20160623

文后再说几句。根据Al Brooks的分析,这里还有另一层分析。棒14开始,价格从区间的底部向上形成了三推。棒20前一棒是一个拥有上影线的阳线。上影线很长的K线出现在三推形态中,交易者们会预期后面一棒会再次测试影线顶点。三推中,价格达到影线顶点,顺势刮头皮者会平多,逆势刮头皮者会开空,空方力量会增强,回踩即将展开。——日内五分钟线的交易里及时做出这些分析,需要多年的经验积累和高度集中的注意力。

大格局和小信号的典型结合——一个旗形反转案例

极端的趋势后,市场的振幅被拉开,反转交易往往有利可图。大行情往往不会V型反转,价格运行的力度有一个从强到弱的过程。Al Brooks的书里有一个“最终旗形反转”的案例,比较典型。记录在这里。

Albrooks 20160628

这里的下跌尖峰非常强烈,棒1为什么不需要“等待二次确认”?这与棒1前面的旗形有关。

第一个证据是旗形。旗形意味着犹豫。这是第一个弱势信号。

第二个证据是棒1的实体,棒1拥有一个阳线实体。当然,小小的实体并不足以单独说明什么。

第三个证据是棒1的上下影线。棒1没有上影线,下影线很长。结合多头实体,这是个有意义的反转线。反转线中,最高价收盘意味着次日开盘后拥有继续上行的动能,有助于入场后迅速脱离成本。

入场后,第一目标点位上看到9:00左右的前低是可以的。目测潜在的回报比在2以上。考虑到这次运动的确定性要高于50%,交易者方程是有利的。

按照书中Al Brooks主张,对于此类交易,要波段化处理,至少看“10棒,两条腿”。就这个图来说,开仓后第12棒出现趋势棒阳线。趋势棒收盘以后,交易者应该注意到这样几个事实:

  • 以跳空开盘为一推计算,反转棒发生在开盘后的三推以后- 之前设定的目标位到了
  • 突破了当日开盘后的下降趋势线(未画出),有回踩测试的需要
  • 价格长期运行在EMA均线之下,首次站到均线上面,存在下拉的力量

综合考虑这些因素,开仓后第12棒的趋势棒收盘后,可暂时获利了结。

这是一个比较典型的最终旗形后反转的例子。总结一下一般的经验:

  • 一般而言,反转至少需要二次确认。这个案例中的“二次”,是指“最终旗形”+“单棒反转”。反转交易,孤证不立,要有验证。
  • 反转不能建立于想象,要有大的格局予以支持。这个案例比较典型,具体的技术分析是建立在“三推”、“趋势线突破”等较大的依据为支撑的。
  • 小信号很重要。根据Al Brooks的观点,一个典型的反转棒放到合适的位置,可以带来70%以上的胜率。精确入场,必须有典型信号的支持。

需要反复强调的一点是:通过“个例”论证“经验”,永远是在“以偏概全”。但除了这个路径,似乎并没有更好地写作方法。就算是约翰·墨菲的《期货市场技术分析》,也要运用个例。这是任何一个写作者都逃不开的窠臼。

和Evernote(印象笔记)交流记录

IMG 6617

6月26日,有幸应邀参加了印象笔记的一个聚会,和Evernote全球CEO Chris O’Neill、中国区(印象笔记)CEO 唐毅Raymond进行了面对面的交流。真正的互联网企业的管理者不应该是守着没有门槛的领域谈理想,也不应该是不顾产品的精神数用户。这方面,印象笔记做出了很好的表率。记录几条当时的谈话。这不是一篇广告,但我真心希望能有越来越多的用户使用Evernote(印象笔记),改变自己的生活。

慎重进行产品迭代

Evernote的大版本更新非常慎重,功能迭代一定是通过由小到大的累进实现的。Evernote不会因为“用户提需求”就对产品功能做出快速反应。企业内部要根据需求的合理性去评估具体的变化对产品整体的影响。一个具体的例子是,Evernote至今都没有“无限层级目录”这种功能,这就是对于“用户需求”的有效过滤。

中国区的“印象笔记”产品也不会片面的对标竞品,“丰富和完善”自身的产品功能。除了部分本土化的设置以外,完全与美国总部的产品架构保持一致。这不是懒惰,也不是迟钝,而是一种明确的价值观——爬雪山,慢就是快。

Evernote的用户数据是安全的,

Evernote也好,印象笔记也罢,至今未能对输出端进行丰富的开发,其共享、分享功能基本没有什么变化。这是有意为之的策略。目的是为了避免被定义为“社交软件”进而接受专属于“社交软件”的监管。唐毅特别提到,具体的事情就不要发在网上了。在这里,暂时只能这样说:Evernote(印象笔记)目前不具备太多“社交”属性,用户数据因此而安全。

数据是用户所有的

和Raymond谈到一个话题,不同的笔记软件对比,似乎只有Evernote的数据库格式可以自由的导出、迁移、转化,而有道、Wiz等均不行。Raymond介绍,Evernote内部是有明确的价值观的,用户的数据就是用户的,不是企业的。Evernote永远不会以使用深度和黏性要挟客户持续使用。每一个客户都有权利随时将数据导出,另作他用。说到底,数据是用户所有的。这是一个铁律,绝不会被突破。

彻底的推进API对外开放

Evernote目前完全开放了API,所有无数的App才能有“导出到印象笔记”这个功能。这一点上,Evernote领先于市场。Raymond介绍,这与目前“去社交化”的策略有关——“输出”一端被弱化了,就集中注意力把“输入”做得更便捷。

市场开拓注重维度拓展,而非线性扩张

这是我自己的感觉,不是管理层的谈话。Evernote目前的工作重点并不是单纯意义上的“地推”式扩张。国内用户做到2000万档位的今天,更多的拓展工作放在了和关联领域的企业进行多角度的合作。例如,近期和新东方的合作就是一例。Evernote在做的事情更像是“潜在客户的挖掘”,而非技术含量较低的“码人头”

技术上,以“借助技术,深化认知”为大方向

进一步改善存储与分享不是Evernote的前进方向。Evernote的未来将建立在借助人工智能技术帮助客户提升认知效率上。一方面,有学习意愿和学习习惯的客户将会借助Evernote获得更高的学习效率,另一方面,基础客户也将体会到技术力量对日常生活的改变。这一切将以最前沿的AI技术为基础,这是美国总部目前的主要努力方向。

孤证不立——交易中的“决斗线”

梁启超在谈及清代正统考据时曾说到“孤证不立”原则:

孤证不为定说。其无反证者姑存之,得有续证则渐信之,遇有力之反证则弃之。——梁启超

翻译成白话:

单独的依据不能做数。如果(单独的)依据没有反证,那么就先放着;如果有了后续的辅证,则可以更多的认可一些;如果有了强有力的反证,则直接抛弃。

无独有偶,交易中也有“决斗线”一说,一个较为长期的交易依据(常常是趋势线、支撑阻力位等)和一个较为短期的交易依据(楔形、三推等各种小周期的形态)在一个很小的区间内交叉,这时候形成的交易信号从长期、短期的角度看都有意义——这就是所谓的“决斗”。“决斗”的本质是双重验证。“孤证不立”,两个不同角度、不同逻辑的依据相互验证,命中率可以有效地提升。

1

Al Brooks的书中有两个比较典型的例子。

2016 06 2011 04 54

如上图,注意数字3、4、5之间的形态。无论我们把它当做一个旗形还是通道还是盘整,这都无所谓。棒5 overshoot了之前的通道线——这是第一个信号。1–5的横线是第二个信号,提示了一个双重底。这是第二个信号。其实这个图里还有没有标记的第三重“决斗”:棒3前面几棒形成一个底,棒5假突破了一下。当然,单纯看棒5及其前面的1棒,并列的两个长下影线本身也是更小周期中的一个双重底,这可能是第四个依据了。

有了这几重验证,棒5就是一个可靠的做多信号了。尽管前面是密密麻麻的重叠K线,出现强多头趋势的可能并不大,但一个1:1的交易空间还是存在的。“决斗线”有效提升了胜率,交易者方程依然是好的。

再看第二个例子。

2016 06 208 07 19

棒1形成了双棒反转形态,overshoot了小图中的下跌尖峰通道线。这是第一个信号。同时,overshoot了当日开盘后低点的通道线(204–205位置趋势线的平行线)和更早低点引出的通道线(5月9日早晨开盘后的低点起)。

目测一下,如果以上面的趋势线(短线)为目标位,回报比大概在2倍略少。胜率如果能在40%以上,期望就是正的。考虑到有三重验证的因素,胜率至少50%以上,交易是可行的。当然,这个例子中有一点不足,“决斗”的逻辑是同一个,全部都是趋势通道线的overshoot。如果可以用其他的逻辑予以验证,胜率可以进一步提高。

2

看一下实盘。

2016 06 234 20 58

铁矿主连,2015年下半年。417这个反转棒同时涉及到了长期下降通道的趋势线、前期支撑阻力区间、反弹旗形的通道线三重“决斗”,决斗逻辑各不相同,时间周期错配。这就是更可靠的情况了。

2016 06 234 27 03

白糖1701,2016年5月。箭头处的反转棒背靠前期的支撑阻力区,同时与通道的趋势线“决斗”。同时,还有均线辅助验证。这也是一个胜率较高的入场。第一目标位即使设在前高,空间也可以达到1.5倍,考虑到大于50%的胜率,交易可行。

3

一个失败的验证即足以证伪,但是不论多少肯定的例子都不足以证实。——索罗斯

把握“孤证不立”原则可以提升胜率,但交易中没有必然。无论多少证据验证,无论有多大的把握,交易的胜率都永远不会是100%。

每一个交易者都要牢记:无论“决斗”多么热闹,永远不要重仓,更不要满仓。小心假设,小心求证,小心开仓,尽量站在确定性的一遍,小心地去赌、去赢。

不要在较小时间框架上寻找反转

209a3856 jpg slt2

时间会改变风险,风险的本质由时间的范围来塑造:未来就是赌场。 ——《与天为敌:风险探索传奇》

这几天观察工业品的价格变化。一轮暴涨之后一轮急跌,这几天出现了止跌的迹象。

螺纹钢的价格变动最具有迷惑性。昨天的大阴线揭开了谜底。

DraggedImage

铁矿石就清晰多了,还是弱。

DraggedImage 1

橡胶前期持续多年的下跌力量更强,没什么像样的反弹。但七八个交易日前的日线反转组合像模像样,单看k线,也有些诱人。

DraggedImage 2

盘面显示,很多人在参与这几天工业品的反转。后续如何运动我们不知道,但昨天的一根大阴线显示,价格向下运动的力量依然很强。

正巧,今天读 Al Brooks,看到了一个类似的形态。

DraggedImage 3

这副图表的标题是——“不要在较小时间框架图表上寻找反转”。

为什么“不要在较小时间框架图表上寻找反转”?

交易要做到“量、价、时、空”四个要素的统一。除了常见的价格和成交量,还要有时间和空间的配合。从时间上看,这一轮的下跌持续了一个多月的时间,所谓的“反转”、“反弹”,也就是几个交易日。几天对比几周,时间上不足以形成反转。从空间上看,这一轮的下跌幅度是这几天振幅的多倍,空间上完全不成比例。即使仅仅看价格,下跌的日线形态很强,力道十足。这几天的“反转”也要,“见底”也好,都是难以与之对抗的。因此,无论从什么角度看看,“反转”都没有凑齐成立的理由。

技术上,反转有很多必要的条件。在展开具体的技术分析前,稳定的时间框架是一个基本前提。 Al Brooks 在书里反复强调,不能弄混不同的时间框架。交易员不能因为先验的立场就用更小的时间框架去寻找入场的理由。弄混了时间框架,找到的理由大多是本不存在的。附会出来的入场“依据”,其本质都是“打哪指哪”、“自说自话”,不具备现实价值。

“时间能治愈一切。”在交易中,唯有时间能够消化、反转暴涨暴跌。一切反转,都需要反复的震荡、筑底、尝试、证伪。脱离了稳定、统一的时间框架,技术分析的可靠性无从谈起。毕竟,未来就是赌场 ——时间会改变风险,风险的本质由时间的范围来塑造。

Al Brooks 有一个经典的公式“大幅上涨+大幅下跌=大的混乱=交易区间”。区间的宿命是被突破。问题是,我们能不能等到下一个趋势来临之前,少流血,甚至不流血。——这是每一个趋势交易者的毕生功课。

OmniOutliner4安装插件,导出Markdown文件

Github上有一个OmniOutliner4导出Markdown文件的插件:
https://github.com/fletcher/Markdown.ooxsl

这个插件可以让OmniOutliner导出符合Markdown格式的文本文件。遗憾的是,由于说明文件写得不是很清楚,无法顺利安装。经过一个中午的摸索,成功安装插件。这里记录一下。

首先,下载Github的代码文件:

1

双击解压缩:
2

将解压缩文件夹“-master”字符串删掉,回车:
3

此时,Mac系统会要求确认,是否变更后缀。点击右侧的“使用.ooxsl”:
4

刚刚解压的文件夹变成了一个文件,后缀是“.ooxsl”
5

双击,选择“安装和退出”即可安装:
6

安装完成,重新运行Omnioutliner4,即可导出Markdown格式的txt文件了。
7

该在什么时候入场?

745392 121514082 2

2015年的阅读中,印象最深的是鹿希武的《趋势交易法(第二版)》。书中的思路很干脆,值得借鉴。

如果以“趋势”和“非趋势”定义价格的运行,则市场要么处于趋势中,要么处于非趋势中。非趋势的状态我们姑且可以称之为“震荡”。趋势有两种,向上的和向下的。因此,市场的运行一定在上升趋势、下降趋势和震荡三这种状态中居其一。

市场要么上升,要么下降,要么在震荡。无论哪一种状态,要么在延续,要么将结束。

  • 如果是上升或者下降趋势在延续,可以入场;将结束,无论是反转还是转为震荡,都不要入场。由此,趋势的延续是第一类入场机会

  • 如果震荡在延续,趋势交易者则不应入场。在逻辑上,震荡市一定会被上升或下降的趋势终结,选择一个明确的方向。而选择方向一定会以突破的形式开始,如果突破顺利,价格一路远走,新的趋势形成;如果突破失败了,震荡则没有结束,假突破以后继续震荡。由此,新的趋势形成是第二类入场机会

因此,趋势交易者得到了两类入场机会:“趋势延续”和“趋势形成”。

  • 趋势延续时,比较好的入场点自然是突破和回调;
  • 趋势形成初,自然就是突破后的成功回调(不破位)。

这正是斯坦利·克罗的三个买点:趋势突破趋势回调sideway行情的突破。这也是一个趋势交易者最应该把握住的三个入场点。这其中,以回报比分析,趋势初期的回调一般来说是最经济的。

大道至简,趋势交易的路子林林总总就是那些。百川归大海,无论是鹿希武还是斯坦利克罗,无论是缠论还是数浪,趋势交易者用起来应该都是一个原则:非趋势,不入场。区间震荡算准了空间可以小赌怡情,跟好趋势才是主航道。至于如何识别突破、回调,拿着头寸还是出场,则需要结合量价形态具体分析,这又是另一个问题了。

黑色暴涨,“看空不做空”?

2016 03 0811 07 04

黑色系商品暴涨,“看空不做空”又频频出现。交易不应该这么复杂。“看空”是观点,“不做空”是做法,观点和做法不一致,事情就复杂了。交易要简单。理想化的交易应该只有“做”与“不做”——极少的时候做,大多数时候不做。

交易的目的是赚钱,不是做天气预报,不是描述后市的走向。成功的交易员不需要有自己的观点,不需要“看空”还是“看多”。交易员在场内只做一件事情:识别供需的强弱。强弱以价格和成交量的形式呈现,强弱背后是供需。市场的趋势也好,盘整也好,支撑也好,阻力也好,突破也好,回撤也好,背后的本质都是供需关系。一个金融交易员,根本的工作是要理解市场中供需力量的变化,进而通过克服贪婪和恐惧,通过建仓、持仓、平仓、空仓去贴合供需变化。

以这波黑色的暴涨为例。在线有在线的原因,空仓有空仓的理由。判断交易员的操作正确与否,唯一的标准就是交易员是否执行了交易系统。短线交易者可能看到一两个日线形态就开仓,中线交易可能还要等待周线级别信号才入场,长线交易可能还需要等待多几个周线级别的高低点确认趋势究竟是反转还是延续。不同的交易“门派”按照不同的“剑法”操练,是否执行了自家的招式才是关键。市场的钱是赚不完的,三千弱水只取一瓢饮,交易要简单,不要太复杂。

交易员要有追求,但永远不要希望自己能预判到每一次上涨下跌——那是上帝的事情。上帝的归上帝,凯撒的归凯撒,交易员要做的是尽可能克服贪婪,克服恐惧,放过不属于自己的盈利,抓紧属于自己的盈利,赚该赚的钱,不赚不属于自己的钱。落实到微观,只有一个永恒的追求:减少回撤,避免亏损。仅此而已。盈利?那是上帝的礼物,是对约束的奖励,是对克己的回报,交易员不能提要求。

做法就是观点,观点就是做法,交易员要知行合一。看空就要开仓做空,入场做空就是在看空。不做就是不确定,不确定就不做——交易员要实事求是。“看空不做空”这样的状态,值得每一个交易员反思。