标签归档:Price Action

eg2105:可靠的说谎 大商所日志 20210308


乙二醇日线级别是强烈的上涨趋势。前期盘整后,出现止跌的迹象。周三周四两个交易日的 IB 结构在周四夜盘先被向下假突破,而后反转向上。周五交易日全天放量,日线结构显示,今日方向向上。

3F 级别上,高点回踩见底后,形成了一个通道结构。上个交易日收盘前,价格冲破上轨回踩到通道内部。开盘后,价格有两种可能的走法。

第一种,价格继续向上突破上轨,回踩不破完成“说谎”,价格向上进行等距离测量。

第二种,价格在上轨附近上冲失败,回落通道内,测试通道下轨。

这两种情况分类下,每一种依然还有三五种变化。大致的分类是这两个方向。

开盘后,价格对上轨测试了两次,均未跌破。由于用时较长,夜盘收盘前未见单边行情。

周一早盘,受周末市场影响,早盘开盘后价格迅速拉升,直接冲坡 6100 整数位置,完成等距离测量。测试后,价格迅速回落,二次冲顶失败,向通道上轨运动。

收盘前,价格在日内均线附近位置获得支撑。收盘。

全日日内结构看,买点有两个。第一个是左侧交易,第二个反复回试日内均线,是最好的买点。买入立刻涨,不回成本区。卖点也是两个。第一个拉高出货是等距离测量,第二个是测试不创新高,是最好的卖点。

原文来自:风云居 | Less is more
本文链接: http://kangjian.net/blog/1973/


cs2105:双通道的测量运动 大商所日志 20210210


淀粉今天示范了典型的双通道测量。

开盘前,3151低点之后形成上升通道。通道角度和缓,可以很清楚的看到内部呈现 A1A2A3 结构,开盘前正在形成 A3 段。盘前分析,通道上轨附近形成 A3 等距离测量运动值得关注,重点关注 A1 段终点前高的水平阻力位和通道上轨形成的“决斗线”。

在开盘第一个 K 线拉起后,应该是保持空仓状态。这次意外地拉起不会带来亏损。这一波尖峰拉到 3192 的高度,正好是前期上涨通道的两倍高度,符合了 Price Action 理论中典型的测量形态。这波尖峰过强,做空的计划需要搁置,暂时不要操作,等待二次拉高。

尖峰直接回落到了通道下轨附近获得了支撑。第三次探底之后开始反弹。反弹过程中有一个中继盘整,获得了日内做多的机会。但这个机会属于日内基于分时级别的交易,不应该作为波段或趋势交易对待。

向上的动能非常强烈,提示价格还将测试前高 3192。价格穿越分时图均线,出现了明显的 Pause Bar 形态,依据分时图在 3171 附近入场,3166 止损出场,上看 3192,用 5 个点的止损空间博取 20 个点的收益,把握高于 20% 即可。很显然,此笔交易的交易者方程是合理的。

最终,价格达到了 3194。但这笔收益最终无法形成盈利,原因是夜盘后市场停盘,早晨 9 点开市,价格剧烈震荡。淀粉是个小品种,盘子浅,价格震荡提前触发了 3166 的止损。

经过“上下上”的剧烈震荡,市场动能耗尽,余下的行情没有交易的价值,做多做空都变得没有了意义。

全天的买卖点只有两个半。第一个是盘中价格上穿分时均线做多(3171 附近)的买点,第二个是价格测试 3192 前高时的卖点。半个买卖点是开盘后两倍通道测试达到的 3192——这个点位只存在于后见之明,既没有达到通道两倍高度 3193 的理论位置,也没有给出任何测试的机会,无法在当下抓住。

P.S. 今天的决斗线的概念,可以参考前文《孤证不立——交易中的“决斗线”》。

原文来自:风云居 | Less is more
本文链接: http://kangjian.net/blog/1830/


eg2105:一次“失败的失败” 大商所日志 20210205


EG2105合约开盘前处于震荡区间中,且盘前存在一个多头尖峰,斜率递增。本日方向为做空,要等。等待第二次拉涨显示向上力度衰竭才可以入场。

开盘后下探失败,价格反弹。反弹再次失败,属于“失败的失败”,是个可靠的做空信号。这里的最大问题是很难找到准确的入场点。这里要借助分时图,寻找价格波动一阶导数的变化,在加速向下的当下入场。

如上图,此处下方面临明显的支撑位。入场点位一定要相对靠上,获得合理的盈亏比。价格在关键区域运行,耐心等待,不要更改持仓的状态。

收盘前,价格下探到4600一线,逢低了结。

今日盘中一共有两个入场点。一是前文提到的“失败的失败”,二是在盘中收敛的旗形整理中出现了一次小级别的“失败的失败”,形成了可靠的分型入场架构。

合理的出场点是4600位置附近。通过分时图是可以抓住,相对左侧出场的。

原文来自:风云居 | Less is more
本文链接: http://kangjian.net/blog/1793/


关于“量、价、时、空”的一点思考

“量、价、时、空”是交易中最基础的四个要素。

以这四个要素作为框架,很多常见的交易要素可以各归其位。如:

    • 放量、缩量、无量
    • 均量
    • 力度指数
    • Price Action理论
    • 均线
    • 支撑阻力位
    • MACD、RSI、KDJ
    • BOLL、通道理论
    • “横有多长,竖有多高”
    • 缠论
    • 均线
    • 波浪理论
    • 盈亏比
    • 支撑阻力位
    • 缠论
    • 波浪理论

以上的划分并不周延,只是个大概的归类。从这个归类中,可以大致看出单个模型的局限所在。比如:

  • MACD、RSI、KDJ、BOLL等指标及其“共振”——这些指标关注的点各自不同,但核心都是一个:价格。用价格形成指标,进而互相验证,难免循环论证。这也是 Price Action 理论强调少用指标的逻辑基础。
  • 均线理论——以价格的均值为基础,考虑了时间因素。均线理论缺乏成交量、空间的因素,因而一般要结合“放量、缩量”操作,同时常用趋势跟踪技术主动弱化空间因素的权重。
  • Price Action——以价格形态为核心,“读取”、“倾听”市场的声音。PA理论大量应用于外汇市场,常常没有准确的“量”的因素。同时, Price Action 理论往往对时空因素采取相对模糊的应用,时空要素往往需要主观判断(时空方面,国内交易员曾有“大象吃苹果”等精彩的主观判断方法)。
  • 缠论——缠论与 Price Action 的着力点恰恰是互补的关系。缠论的价格因素主要是以“分型、笔、线段”的形式呈现,对价格的小级别波动并不是十分关注。结合中枢、级别等理论、将时空因素纳入。
  • 波浪理论——重在时空关系,价格因素在波浪理论中类似缠论,应用得比较粗糙。考虑时空因素过于主观,“千人千浪”。

以上,可以看出,相对体系化的框架,如 Price Action、缠论、波浪理论,或多或少都要照顾到四个要素。而 MACD 等指标,由于在要素层级存在自身的局限,则很难构成交易系统的基础。均线理论应用于实战,往往不能简单的“金叉死叉”,要结合K线形态(Price Action,“价”)、和成交量的变化相互验证,提升绩效。即使如此,均线理论在时空因素的把握上往往也要采取趋势跟踪策略主动“放弃”。

“量、价、时、空”四者之间的有效结合、匹配,进而寻找共振,可以有效提高胜率。

对交易员来讲,有必要从这四个角度重新审视自己的交易系统,是否在某些方面存在缺陷。简单设计一个打分卡:

  • 量:明确?涉及?空白?
  • 价:明确?涉及?空白?
  • 时:明确?涉及?空白?
  • 空:明确?涉及?空白?

一个成熟稳定的交易系统,也许有这些关注点:

  • 四个要素中最好不要出现“空白”(外汇交易中的“量”除外);
  • 四个要素都是“明确”的时候,往往可以将交易系统程序化了;
  • 交易员的价值,恰恰在于对“涉及”这种状态的把握;
  • 四个要素全部是“涉及”,交易员往往会比较累,交易绩效对于身体、心理的状态要求也比较高;
  • 直觉上,有两个以上“明确”,一到两个“涉及”,似乎比较容易操作。

当然,千人千面,每个人都有自己舒服的状态,不能一概而论。交易的核心还是心态控制和资金管理,技术分析终究只是交易的皮毛,过分沉溺,难免皮相。

EOF

原文来自:风云居 | Less is more
本文链接: http://kangjian.net/blog/1727/

商品到了关键点


商品跌到了重要的位置。

这种时候,耐心比黄金还珍贵。

文华商品指数

黑链指数

煤炭板块

焦煤指数

EOF.

原文来自:风云居 | Less is more
本文链接: http://kangjian.net/blog/1724/


价值投资中的回撤入场


(Image By ChartSecret.com)

Price Action 理论中,除了极少数的情况,入场基本都要在回撤的时候。所谓“顺大势,逆小势”、“突破回踩”,都是回撤入场。

对比一下 Elder 对基本面分析的解读:

当我认为未来某个事件会增加一只股票的价值,而目前价格又低于价值时,我才会考虑买入。在价值之下买入,在价值之上卖出并有清晰的逻辑,这样做才能让我在逆境时坚定信心。(《以交易为生2》,CH1)

这段话包含两个意思:

  1. 入场(做多)的主要原因是看涨。未来的价值会增加,所以现在准备做多。这是最基本的原因。
  2. 当前的价格要低于价值。把未来的走势遮住不看,现在的价格要低于现在的价值。这是第二个原因。

第一个比较好理解。未来看涨,任何一个价值投资者的基本范式都是这个。第二个比较容易被忽略。

目前价格又低于价值时,我才会考虑买入”。价格低于价值,即价格被低估。在 Elder 眼中看来,即使是价值投资,也要重视买点。当下的价格被低估的时候,才是价值投资者的买点。很多时候,“价值投资”亏钱,往往是方向看对了,入场点没找好。高估时入场,长时间被套。事后一看,其实大方向是对的。

——这就是价值投资的“回撤入场”:

  • 方向顺大势:价值在未来看涨
  • 入场逆小势:当下的价格被低估

当然,典型的回撤入场往往还要重视扳机点,没有扳机的枪不会响。基本面分析时,扳机点可能就是一个短期看衰时的利好新闻、一个回撤中的放量大阳线等等,这些都可以。价值投资毕竟周期更长,精度上的要求可以放松一些。

总结一下,价值投资回撤入场的关键:当下价值被低估。无低估,不做多。

EOF.

原文来自:风云居 | Less is more
本文链接: http://kangjian.net/blog/1722/

两个标准,看看你是如何看待价格的?

(Photo By Teddy Kelley)

(Photo By Teddy Kelley)

Van Tharp 在 “Definitive Guide to Position Sizing” 中举了一个例子,说明了资金管理对防范黑天鹅事件的意义。原文出现在讲授风险回报比的内容中,讲得比较简单,有必要单独拿出来看一下。

这段原文如下:

You buy a stock at $60 and plan to get out if it drops to $55. However, when it goes that low, you don’t sell. Instead, you just stop looking at it and hope it will go back up. It doesn’t. It becomes part of the headline business news involving corporate scandal and eventually the stock becomes worthless. What’s your loss as an R-multiple? By the way, this perfectly describes the situation with Enron, WorldCom, or any number of other companies that have gone bankrupt over the years. There were plenty of signs to get out of those stocks before any corporate scandal broke out.

简单翻译一下:

你在60美元的价位买入,计划在价格下跌到55美元的时候止损出场。但是,当价格到了55美元的时候,你不仅没有卖出,反而捂住了眼睛,希望价格自己涨回来。然而并没有。一桩头条新闻报道了公司的丑闻,最终股票变得一文不值。你的风险回报比是多少?顺便提一句,这种情形完美描述了安然事件、世通事件,还有这些年林林总总的因丑闻而倒下的公司。在这些公司的丑闻爆发之前,他们的股票往往会提前透露出大量的信号。

为什么价格会提前透露基本面的信息呢?

首先,市场的价格是所有参与者价值观的综合反映。在一个成交量足够的品种上(某个商品合约、某个个股、某个货币对),价格就是市场的均衡,综合反映了当前市场的整体看法。反之,如果价格出现了反常的变化,不是因为别的,恰恰是市场的整体看法出现了反常的扭曲。市场中的一部分人对标的品种的看法变了,所以供需变了。这种变化之所以看起来“反常”,只不过是因为暂时还没有被大多数人理解。这个时候又可以分成两种情况来看:第一种情况,内幕人、聪明人先于市场知道了一些信息,供需短期失衡源于这些人,这些信息逐渐扩散,“反常”逐渐为普罗大宗所知悉。第二种情况,错误的信息引发了市场的恐慌,当错误被证伪,市场会自我纠正,价格也会迅速回归正常。因此,如果反常的价格变化没有被迅速纠正,也许就是有人已经“趁着天没亮抢先出发了”。所谓“反常”,就是指这个——除非都没下船,或者都没上车,有反常,多半是出现了先行者。

其次,绝对正确的价值观并不存在。天行有常,不为尧存,不为桀亡。市场运行有其自身的规律和形态,不会被任何力量所左右。每一个对反常信号视而不见的交易者,内心往往都预设了一个别样的标准。为什么视而不见,甚至闭上眼睛不愿看见呢?是因为价格运行的方向和这个标准不一致。说到底,这是个谁服从谁的问题——究竟是交易者的判断要服从于市场,还是市场的走势要服从于交易者个人呢?如果这么说,问题看起来很简单。真正困难的是,这个预设的标准往往深深地埋在了潜意识里。交易者要想把它挖出来晒一晒太阳,需要比较深的自省功夫。这是最大的难点。

那么,怎么办呢?用一大一小两个标准自我检验一下。需要加粗的是,这只是两个判断的标准,并不是什么标准答案——这就是一横一竖两个数轴,把人群划分为四个象限而已,谁也不比谁高尚——看完了两个问题拿不准的,没关系,可以暂时骑在数轴上休息。这都可以。

  • 大的。你是否认同,没有什么能左右市场“大命题”)?这个市场是个宏观的市场,不仅仅是某个交易所、某个地理区域,可以把它理解为整个世界,它包含政府、交易所、大庄家、小散户。你是否认同,没有任何一家机构、一个政府、一个团体、一间公司、一个个人,能够从根本上控制市场的运行?放在现在的背景,举个例子,比如北京的房价,如果说从市场的角度讲,超指数增长不可持续是市场的一个基本特征,你认为能否有一个机构、一个团体能够改变这个命题(超指数增长不可持续)呢?如果你认为有(某个主体能改变“大命题”),那么你就并不认同这个命题。如果认为没有(某个主体能改变“大命题”),那么你自然就认同这个命题。
  • 小的。你是否能做到,扔掉自己的预设观点,做一个没有立场的交易者。“小命题”)?这个标准可以用逻辑解构一下。买盘卖盘的结合处,我们叫“成交价”。(变动的)价格意味着(变动的)均衡。价格的波动意味着均衡的变化。两次均衡的点位有差距,意味着有利润(当然,做反了就是亏损)。你能扔掉自己的观点,做一个没有立场的交易者,一心跟随市场吗?如果你始终坚持自己的观点,不止损,拿着头寸,等待市场验证自己的观点。这没错,这是一个方法。如果你能扔掉自己的观点,甚至压根就没有自己的观点,所有的入场依据都是基于价格的运动,自然需要市场走势去验证自己之前对于市场的猜测。对了就拿着,错了就止损。这也没错,是另一个思路。

两个标准说完,每个象限都没错。如果两个标准都认同,答案都是Yes,再回过头看看 Van Tharp 的这句话:

There were plenty of signs to get out of those stocks before any corporate scandal broke out.

——应该会更好理解一些。

P.S. 有必要再次强调的是,我并不是提倡技术分析原教旨主义。上述的两个标准划分出的四个象限,都是正确的。

2016-12-20

原文来自:风云居 | Less is more
本文链接: http://kangjian.net/blog/1716/

确认趋势的3个“傻瓜”策略【译文】


作者:Nial Fuller 原文:via

Trendingmarket

作为Price Action的交易者,最重要的事就是区分市场是不是处于趋势之中。是否进场取决于此,搞懂如何去区别趋势和区间就是一个非常严肃的问题了。

如果你最近曾经为这个问题费过心思,或者你是一个交易新手,今天的内容就是给你设计的。读过下面的文字,你应该会感觉到更清楚一些——如何把趋势从无序的市场中找出来。

找Price Action的架构

第一个策略已经矗立在市场中数百年了,从未失灵,常谈常新。

我最喜欢用这个方法去区分趋势市场——从Price Action的视角简单看一下市场。非常简单,我就找一个重复的形态:上升趋势中的更高的高点(Higher Highs ,HH)和更高的低点(Higher Lows,HL),和下降趋势中的更低的高点(Lower Highs ,LH)和更低的低点(Lower Lows ,LL)。

下面是一个典型案例。这是一个典型的下降趋势,其中包括了很多重复的更低的高点(LH)和更低的低点(LL)……

Trending1

下面是一个典型案例。这是一个典型的上升趋势,其中包括了很多重复的更高的高点(HH)和更高的低点(HL)……

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请注意:我经常收到邮件问我,怎样知道一个新的趋势已经开始了,一个旧的趋势已经结束了。用我刚刚提到的办法就行,找到HH、HL、LH、LL这几个点就好了。举例,一旦你看到了一组HH和HL点被打断或破坏了,市场出现了一个更低的高点(LH),这就是个早期的信号,提醒你上升趋势将结束了。

讲真,如果说一个上升趋势结束了,一个新的下降趋势产生了,我们还需要在前面的上升趋势后面至少找到一组LH和LL点。也就是说,一旦市场运行出现了第一个更低的高点(即失败的新高),接着我们需要看到这个更低的高点后面出现一个更低的低点(LH)。这时候,我们就可以找机会入场放空了。

找平行线

我们还可以通过关键位置的支撑阻力位来区分市场是否处于趋势之中。最基本的方法是简单地看一眼,看看能不能找到上下两条水平线之间清晰地震荡。如果存在平行位置之间的反复震荡,这就是一个区间震荡中的市场,否则市场就是处于趋势之中。

区间有两个基本类型:窄的和宽的。更多信息可以学习区间市场的文章。

下面的例子里,我们可以发现市场在支撑阻力位之间反复震荡。注意,这里的价格不必精确地击中关键位置,只要大概运行在两个支撑阻力关键位置之间,就不是趋势市场,而是宽幅震荡。

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移动均线

第三个区分趋势市场的方法是均线。均线能给新手们提供一个可视化的分析依据,实际使用中还需要与其他Price Action的策略合并判断才行。原因我们下面会说。

我主要看日线图,用8天和21天的指数移动平均线(EMAs)快速判断趋势。均线也能提供一个动态的支撑阻力区域。

使用均线区分趋势市场要注意两个基本要点。一是均线的交叉方向,是金叉还是死叉?我只用均线的交叉用于判断方向,而不用传统意义上的“移动均线交叉入场”。

二是两根均线的分叉是否越来越大,这往往是趋势强弱的指示。当然了,这也需要结合前面介绍的Price Action的策略,毕竟仅仅依靠均线,在宽幅震荡中可能会释放出假信号。均线更适合作为判断趋势方向的快速参考,再有就是分析一下买和卖的大概的支撑阻力。

均线组合在图上可以画出一条动态的移动支撑阻力区域、分层。均线的分层在两条均线之间,比如“8日线和21日线之间的分层”。我们可以在某个分层中寻找Price Action的信号,入场后用这个均线分层跟踪趋势。

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宽幅震荡的区间市场中使用移动均线时,要格外小心假信号。这也是为什么我们之前反复强调,要用Price Action方法作为“过滤器”,来筛选均线信号。

举例来说,前面第二点提到的宽幅震荡市场中,如果你放了一组均线,两根均线很可能出现反复交叉,这期间价格也在支撑阻力位之间反复震荡。如果你跟着均线在震荡市中操作,价格上上下下,均线反复交叉,你将持续的反复挨耳光。从这个角度考虑,我更倾向于用上面说的第一点判断趋势。当然,均线策略是策略1非常好的补充和验证依据,还可以提供一套好的“价值区域”参考,来指导趋势中的买卖操作。

结语

趋势是你的朋友。你一定希望在入场前,能够完全清晰地判断市场究竟是不是趋势。希望今天的内容能帮你界定如何区分趋势和震荡,加大你把握大趋势的把握。学习更多的趋势交易和区间交易知识,可以参考我们其他的内容。

原文来自:风云居 | Less is more
本文链接: http://kangjian.net/blog/1682/


Al Brooks的78条交易指引


这78条提示,是Al Brooks三本书中反转篇的结尾。字字珠玑,照录如下。致敬Al Brooks。

  1. Reading these 570,000 words is like reading a detailed manual on how to do anything, such as playing golf or a violin. It takes a lot of hard work to turn the information into the ability to make a living as a trader, but it is impossible without understanding how markets work. Like being a professional golfer or violinist, no matter how good you get, you always want to be better, so the challenge and satisfaction last long after you become consistently profitable.

  2. Everything that you see is in a gray fog. Nothing is perfectly clear. Close is close enough. If something looks like a reliable pattern, it will likely trade like a reliable pattern.

  3. There is no easy set of reliable rules to make money as a trader, and everything is subjective. This is a zero-sum game with very smart players, so when an edge exists, it is small and fleeting. For a trader to make money, he has to be consistently better than half of the other traders out there (or more accurately, trade a positive trader’s equation more than half of the time). Since most of the competitors are profitable institutions, a trader has to be very good. However, edges appear constantly, and if you learn to spot them and understand how to trade them, you are in a position to make money.

  4. The edge can never get very large because institutions would take advantage of it as it was growing. A trade cannot have a high probability of making a big reward relative to the risk.

  5. Reading charts well is difficult, but it is only half of what you need to know to make money. You also need to learn to trade, which is just as difficult. Trading successfully always has been and will always continue to be hard to do, no matter what method you use. If there were an easy way to make money, everyone would do it and then there would be no trapped traders to drive the market to your target. Read a book that teaches you how to play the violin and then go out to see if the world will give you money to hear you play. Just because you understand how to do something does not mean that you can do it effectively, especially if it is difficult to do.

  6. A trader needs a mathematical advantage to make money. At every moment, there is always a mathematical edge for both a long and a short trade, but the edges are usually not clear. When they are relatively clear, they are fleeting and small. However, those are the times when traders need to place their trades.

  7. The ability to spot trades that have a positive trader’s equation is the key to success. That can mean buying above a bar on a stop, selling above a bar with a limit order, buying below a bar with a limit order, or selling below a bar on a stop.

  8. The single most important determination that a trader makes, and he makes this after the close of every bar, is whether there will be more buyers or sellers above and below the prior bar. This is particularly true with breakouts and failed breakouts, because the move that follows usually determines the always-in direction and therefore lasts for many points and is not just a scalp.

  9. Every time you buy above the high of the prior bar on a stop, someone else is shorting there with a limit order. When you sell one tick below the low of the prior bar, there is a strong bull who is taking the other side of your trade. Always remember that nothing is certain, and the edge is always small because there are smart people who believe the exact opposite of what you do.

  10. Every bar, even a strong trend bar, is a signal bar for both directions, and the market can begin a trend up or down on the next bar. Be open to all possibilities, including the exact opposite of what you expect, and when the surprise happens, don’t question or deny it. Just read it and trade it.

  11. Every time you look to enter a setup, make sure to consider what the market is telling you if instead it breaks out of the opposite end of the signal bar. Sometimes that buy setup that you see might in fact also be a great sell setup because it will trap longs who will cover below the low of the signal or entry bars.

  12. Understanding trend bars that create breakouts is one of the most important skills that a trader can acquire. Traders need to be able to assess whether a breakout is likely to succeed, or it will be met with profit taking and a pullback, or it will be followed by a reversal.

  13. Look for signs of strength and weakness and weigh them to determine if they give you an edge. If you see the market doing something, assess how strong the setup is. Did it fail to take an opportunity to do something strong? If so, the setup is weaker.

  14. Whenever you are positive that your setup is good, don’t take the trade. You are missing something. You don’t see what the person who is taking the other side of your trade is seeing, and that person is just as smart as you are. Be humble. If you are too confident, your arrogance will make you lose because you will be using unrealistically high probabilities in your evaluation of the trader’s equation.

  15. Much of life is not what it seems. In fact, the famous mathematician Charles Lutwidge Dodgson was not what he seemed to be and is better known as Lewis Carroll. We work in an Alice in Wonderland world where nothing is really as it seems. Up is not always up and down is not always down. Just look at most strong breakouts of trading ranges—they usually fail, and up is really the start of down and down is really just part of up. Also, 60 percent is 60 percent in only 90 percent of the cases and can be 90 percent sometimes and 10 percent at other times. If a good setup is 60 percent, how can you win 80 percent or more of the time? Well, in a pullback in a strong trend just above support, a setup might work 60 percent of the time, but if you can scale in as the market goes lower, especially if your subsequent entries are larger, you might find that you win in 80 percent or more of those 60 percent setups. Also, if you use a very wide stop and are willing to sit through a large drawdown for a couple of hours, that 60 percent chance of making two points before losing two points in the Emini might be a 90 percent chance of making four points before losing eight points. If you are flexible and comfortable with constantly changing probabilities and many probabilities coexisting, your chance of success is much greater.

  16. The single most important thing that you can do all day is talk yourself out of bad trades. For example, if it is a trading range day, don’t look to buy after a strong bull trend bar or a high 1 near the top of the range, and don’t look to short after a strong bear trend bar or low 1 near the bottom of the range.

  17. The market constantly exhibits inertia and tends to continue what it has just been doing. If it is in a trend, 80 percent of the attempts to reverse it will fail and lead to a flag and then a resumption of the trend. If it is in a trading range, 80 percent of the attempts to break out into a trend will fail.

  18. If ever you feel twisted inside because a pullback is going too far, you are likely mistakenly seeing a pullback when in fact the trend has reversed.

  19. If you think the market rationally should be going up, but instead it is offering you a strong sell setup, take it. Trade the trade that you have and not the one that you want or expect, because “the market can stay irrational much longer than you can stay solvent” (a quote attributed to John Maynard Keynes).

  20. Price is truth. Never argue with what the market is telling you. For a day trader, fundamentals are almost entirely useless. The market will tell you where it is going and it cannot hide what it is doing. Neither you nor the experts on television can know how the market will react to the fundamentals, although those experts often speak with certainty. Since the market is rarely more than 60 percent certain of anything, whenever pundits speak with certainty, they are ignoring math and therefore the most basic characteristic of the market. If you follow someone who is indifferent to or ignorant of how markets work, you will lose money.

  21. Everything makes sense. If you know how to read price action, nothing will surprise you, because you will understand what the market is doing. Beginners can see it on a printout at the end of the day. The goal is to learn how to read fast enough so that you can understand what is happening in real time.

  22. “It’s not fair!” If that is how you are feeling, take a break from trading. You are absolutely right—it is not fair, but that is because it is all based on mathematics, and fairness is never one of the variables. If you are concerned about fairness, you are not synchronized with the market. Computer programs control all market activity, and they have no concept of fairness; they never get tired, they don’t remember what their last trade was, and they are relentlessly objective. Since they are making money, you need to try to emulate their qualities. They cannot hide what they are doing, and your job is to see what they are doing and then copy them. Yes, you will enter after their first entry, but they will continue to enter after you do, and they are the force that will drive the market far enough to give you your profit.

  23. Price action is based on human behavior and therefore has a genetic basis. This is why it works in all markets in all countries and on all time frames and it has always worked and always will inescapably reflect human behavior, at least until we evolve into a new species.

  24. Always have a protective stop in the market because it protects you from the greatest danger you will ever face as a trader. That danger is not the market, which could not care less whether you win or lose, never knows that you exist, and is never out to get you. It is yourself, and all of your inadequacies as a trader, including denial, arrogance, and a lack of discipline.

  25. Thinking is very difficult. Losers prefer instead to look with religious zeal for a savior who will protect them from losing money. Saviors can be confident, impressive experts with outstanding credentials on TV, famous writers of newsletters, chat room leaders, indicators, or any other external idol into which traders infuse the power to protect them and take them to the Promised Land. Instead, they will all slowly suck the last dollar from your account. You will not make money until you do your own analysis and ignore all external influences that promise you success, but in fact exist only to make money for themselves and not you. The experts on TV hope to establish credibility that they can use to sell their services or get a promotion, the TV station makes money off commercials, the chat room and newsletter people sell their services, and the software company that gives you indicators does so for a fee. No one is going to help you in the long run, so never fool yourself into believing that you can make money with the help of all of those nice people.

  26. Those who talk don’t know and those who know don’t talk. Don’t watch TV or read any news.

  27. If you find that you did not take a couple of Emini trades in a row and they worked, you are likely trading too large a position size. Switch to trading 100 to 300 shares of SPY and swing for at least 20 to 50 cents. Even though you won’t get rich, at least you will make some money and build your confidence. If you think that you can comfortably trade three Emini contracts per trade, then you should trade just one. This will make it much easier for you to take every signal. If you trade three Eminis, you will let many good signals go because you really are comfortable trading only three contracts in the rare case of a perfect signal. You need to be trading a size where you are comfortable with any decent signal and remain comfortable if you lose two or three times in a row. One indicator of this comfort is your ability to take the next trade after those losses. If you feel too uncomfortable and are really waiting for perfection, you are still trading too much volume. Once you start cherry-picking, you are on the path to a blown account. Your emotions are a burden and give an edge to your opponents, as is the case in any competition.

  28. “I don’t care!” That is the most useful mantra. I don’t care if I lose on this trade, because I am trading a small enough size that a loss will not upset me and cloud my judgment. I don’t care what the experts are saying on TV or in the Wall Street Journal. I don’t care what is happening on the 3 and 1 minute charts or on volume or tick charts, and I don’t care about missing all of the wonderful signals that those charts are generating, because if the trades really are good, they will lead to 5 minute signals as well. I don’t care that the market is way overdone and is due for a correction. I don’t care about indicators, especially squiggly lines that show divergences in a huge trend (meanwhile, there has been no trend line break), but I do care about the one chart in front of me and what it is telling me. I also care about following my rules and not allowing any outside influence talk me out of doing what my rules are telling me.

  29. If you are afraid of taking a great trade because your stop would have to be too far, reduce your position size to maybe a quarter of normal so that your total dollar risk is no larger than for your usual trades. You need to get into the “I don’t care” mode to be able to take these trades. By cutting your position size, you can focus on the quality of the setup instead of being preoccupied with the dollars that you can lose if the trade fails. However, first spot a good setup before adopting the “I don’t care” mind-set, because you don’t want to be so apathetic about the dollars that you begin to take weak setups and then go on to lose money.

  30. The market is never certain when it has gone far enough, but it is always certain when it has gone too far. Most reversals require excess before traders believe that the reversal will work. Market inertia can be stopped only by excess.

  31. It is difficult to reverse a position. For most traders, it is far better to exit, even with a loss, and then look for another setup in the new direction.

  32. There are no reliable countertrend patterns so, unless you are a consistently profitable trader, never trade countertrend unless there first has been a strong break of a significant trend line, and the signal is a reasonable setup for an always-in reversal. When you are shorting below that great bear reversal bar in a strong bull trend, far smarter traders are buying with limit orders at the low of your signal bar. When you are buying on a stop above a bull reversal bar in a strong bear trend, smarter traders are shorting exactly where you are buying. Since 80 percent of reversals fail, who do you think is making the money?

  33. Any reversal setup is a good reason to take partial or full profits, but the setup has to be strong if you are considering a countertrend trade. Since 80 percent of reversals fail, it is far better to view each top as the start of a bull flag and each bottom as the start of a bear flag.

  34. Too early is always worse than too late. Since most reversals and breakouts fail, an early entry will likely fail. Since most trends go a long way, entering late is usually still a good trade.

  35. All patterns fail and the failures often fail, and when they do, they create a breakout pullback in the original direction and have a high probability of success.

  36. When you see that one side is suddenly trapped, the reliability of a scalp in the opposite direction goes up. Trapped traders will be forced out as you are getting in, and they will likely wait for more price action before entering again in their original direction, so the only traders left will be in your direction.

  37. Seeing traders getting trapped out of a trade on a stop run is as reliable a signal as seeing them getting trapped in a trade. If the market suddenly runs stops and then resumes its trend, this is a reliable setup for at least a scalper’s profit.

  38. Wait. If the market has not given any signals for 30 to 60 minutes and you find yourself checking your e-mail or talking on the phone with your daughter away at college, and suddenly the market makes a large bull trend bar that breaks out of a trading range, wait. You’ve lost touch with the market and it is trying to trap you in. Never make a quick decision to place a trade, especially on a sudden, large trend bar. If it turns into a great trade and you miss it, you will still be ahead overall because the odds are against you when you take trades under these circumstances. Yes, some will be winners, but if you review all of the times that you took these trades, you will discover that you lost money.

  39. You don’t have to trade. You goal as a trader is to make money, not to make trades, so take a trade only when it will help you achieve your goal. There will be many other signals all day long, so wait for a good one, and don’t be upset when you miss good trades. Many beginners want excitement and tend to overtrade. Many great traders find trading to be lonely and boring, but very profitable. Everyone wants to trade, but you should want to make money more than you want to trade. You should take only trades that are likely to make money, not simply relieve your tension from not having placed a trade in an hour or two.

  40. Simple is better. You don’t need indicators, and you should look at only one chart. If you can’t make money off a single chart with no indicators, adding more things to analyze will just make it more difficult. Also, trade only the very best setups until you are consistently profitable. The single biggest problem with using two charts is that there is a natural tendency to take only signals that occur simultaneously on both charts, which rarely happens. You end up rejecting most of the day’s great signals because the second chart does not have a signal or the signal occurred two ticks earlier. For example, if you see a great high 2 pullback to the exponential moving average in a bull trend on the 5 minute chart and then look at the 2 or 3 minute chart and see that it gave an entry two ticks earlier, you might not take the 5 minute entry because you will be afraid that the move will stop at the 2 minute scalper’s target and never reach the 5 minute target.

  41. Decide whether this is a hobby or a job. If it is a hobby, find another one because this one will be too expensive and it is dangerously addictive. All great traders are likely trading addicts, but most trading addicts will likely end up broke.

  42. Begin trading using a 5 minute chart, entering on a pullback and using a stop order for your entry. When the market is in a bull trend, look to buy above a bull bar at the moving average. When it is in a bear trend, look to short below a bear bar at the moving average. Take some or all off on a limit order at a profit target around the prior extreme of the trend, and then move the protective stop to breakeven on any remaining contracts.

  43. When starting out, you should consider trading the SPY instead of the Emini. One Emini is virtually identical to 500 SPY shares, and trading 200 to 500 SPY shares would allow you to scale out as you swing part of your trade, yet not incur much risk. Once you reach 1,000 to 1,500 SPY shares, if you are thinking that you will continue to increase your position size, then switch to the Emini. At that size, you can scale out of the Emini and you can increase your position size tremendously without slippage being a significant issue.

  44. Buy low and sell high, except in a clear and strong trend (see Part I in book 1 on trends). In a bull trend, buy high 2 setups even if they are at the high of the day; in a bear trend, sell low 2 setups. However, the market is in a trading range for the vast majority of the time. For example, if the market has been going up for a few bars and there is now a buy signal near the top of this leg up, ask yourself if you believe that the market is in one of the established clear and strong bull trend patterns described in these books. If you cannot convince yourself that it is, don’t buy high, even if the momentum looks great, since the odds are great that you will be trapped. Remember Warren Buffett’s version of the old saw, “Be afraid when others are greedy and be greedy when others are afraid.”

  45. The two most important feelings for the media and for beginners are fear and greed. Profitable traders feel neither. For them, the two most important feelings are uncertainty (confusion) and urgency, and they use both to make money. Every bar and every segment of every market is either a trend or a trading range. When a trader is certain, the market is in a strong trend. When he feels a sense of urgency, like he wants to buy as the market is going up (or short as it is going down) but is desperate for a pullback, the market is in a strong trend. He will buy at least a small position at the market instead of waiting for a pullback.

  46. When a trader is uncertain or confused, the market is in a trading range and he should only buy low and sell high. If he wants to take many trades, only scalp. Uncertainty means that the market has a lot of two-sided trading and therefore might be forming a trading range. Since most breakout attempts fail, it is better to only look to short if you are uncertain and the market is up for five to 10 bars, and only look for longs when it is down for five to 10 bars.

  47. When there is a trading range, buy low means that if the market is near the bottom of the range and you are short, you can buy back your short for a profit, and if there is a strong buy signal, you can buy to initiate a long. Likewise, when the market is toward the top of the range, you sell high. This selling can be to take your profit on your long, or, if there is a good short setup, you can sell to initiate a short position.

  48. Good fill, bad trade. Always be suspicious if the market lets you in or out at a price that is better than you anticipated. The corollary of bad fill, good trade is not as reliable.

  49. The first hour or two is usually the easiest time to make money, because the swings tend to be large and there are not many doji bars. The first hour is the easiest time to lose money as well, because you are overly confident about how easy it might be, and you don’t follow your rules carefully. The first hour usually has many reversals, so patiently wait for a swing setup, which will generally have less than a 50 percent chance of success but a potential reward that is at least twice as large as the risk. Experienced traders can scalp. If you don’t follow your rules and are in the red, you’ve missed the easiest time of the day to make money, which means that you will be unhappy all day as you hope to get back to breakeven in trading that is much slower and less profitable.

  50. If you are down on the day and you are now in the second half of the day, it can feel like you are swimming in quicksand—the harder you try to get out, the deeper you sink. Even great traders simply fail to connect emotionally with the flow of the market some days and they will occasionally lose, even though a printout of the 5 minute chart at the end of the day will be shockingly clear. The smartest thing to do is just make sure that you follow your rules into the close, and you will likely win back some of your losses. The worst thing to do is to modify your trading style, which is probably why you are down on the day. Don’t increase your position size and start trading lower-probability setups. If you have an approach that makes you money, stick with it and you will earn back your loss tomorrow. Using a different approach will only cost you more.

  51. Beginners should avoid trading in the middle of the day when the market is in the middle of a day’s range, especially if the moving average is relatively flat and the trading range is tight and has prominent tails (barbwire). When you are about to take any trade, always ask yourself if the setup is one of the best of the day. Is this the one that the institutions have been waiting for all day? If the answer is no and you are not a consistently profitable trader, then you should not take the trade, either.

  52. A tight trading range is the worst environment for entering on stops. The institutions are doing the opposite, and you will consistently lose if you insist on trading, hoping that a trend is about to begin.

  53. A tight trading range trumps everything. That means that it is more important than every good reason that you have to buy or sell. Unless you are a great trader, once you sense that a tight trading range might be forming, force yourself to not take any trades, even if you don’t trade for hours.

  54. Every bar and every series of bars is either a trend or a trading range. Pick one. Decide on the always-in direction and trade only in that direction until it changes. Throughout the day and especially around 8:30 a.m. PST, you need to be deciding whether the day resembles any trend pattern described in these books. If it does and you are looking to take any trade, you must take every with-trend trade. Never consider taking a countertrend trade if you haven’t been taking all of the with-trend trades.

  55. The best signal bars are trend bars in the direction of your trade. Doji bars are one-bar trading ranges and therefore usually terrible signal bars. You will usually lose if you buy above a trading range or sell below one.

  56. Most countertrend setups fail, and most with-trend setups succeed. Do the math and decide which you should be trading. Trends constantly form great-looking countertrend setups and lousy-looking with-trend setups. If you trade countertrend, you are gambling and, although you will often win and have fun, the math is against you and you will slowly but surely go broke. Countertrend setups in strong trends almost always fail and become great with-trend setups, especially on the 1 minute chart.

  57. You will not make consistent money until you stop trading countertrend scalps. You will win often enough to keep you trying to improve your technique, but over time your account will slowly disappear. Remember, your risk will likely have to be as large as your profit target, so it will usually take six winners just to get back to breakeven after four losses, and this is a very depressing prospect. Realistically, you should scalp only if you can win 60 percent of the time, and most traders should avoid any trade where the potential reward is not at least as large as the risk. Beginners should scalp only with the trend, if at all.

  58. Until you are consistently profitable, take only trades where your potential reward is at least as large as your risk. If you need to risk two points in the Emini, do not take your profit until you have at least two points. Most traders should not scalp for a reward that is smaller than the risk, because they will lose money even if they win on 60 percent of their trades. Remember the trader’s equation. The chance of winning times your potential reward has to be significantly greater than the chance of losing times your risk. You cannot risk two points to make one point and hope to make a profit unless you are right at least 80 percent of the time, and very few traders are that good.

  59. The trader’s equation has three variables, and any setup with a positive result is a good trade. This can be a trade with a high probability of success and a reward only equal to the risk, one with a low probability of success and a huge reward relative to risk, or anything in between.

  60. Experienced traders can scale into (or out of) trades to improve their trader’s equation. For example, the initial entry might have a relatively low probability of success, but subsequent entries might have significantly higher probabilities, improving the trader’s equation for the entire position.

  61. You will not make money until you start trading with-trend pullbacks.

  62. You will not make money trading reversals until you wait for a break of a significant trend line and then for a strong reversal bar on a test of the trend’s extreme.

  63. You will not make money unless you know what you are doing. Print out the 5 minute Emini chart every day (and stock charts, if you trade stocks) and write on the chart every setup that you see. When you see several price action features, write them all on the chart. Do this every day for years until you can look at any part of any chart and instantly understand what is happening.

  64. You will not make money in the long term until you know enough about your personality to find a trading style that is compatible. You need to be able to follow your rules comfortably, allowing you to enter and exit trades with minimal or no uncertainty or anxiety. Once you have mastered a method of trading, if you feel stress while trading, then you haven’t yet found either your style or yourself.

  65. You will not make money if you lose your discipline and take risky trades in the final couple of hours that you would never take in the first couple of hours. You will invariably give back those earnings from earlier in the day that fooled you into thinking that you are a better trader than you really are.

  66. You are competing against computers. They have the edge of speed, so it is usually best not to trade during a report, because that is when their speed edge is greatest. They also have the edge of not being emotional, so don’t trade when you are upset or distracted. Third, they have the edge of never getting tired, so don’t trade when you are worn out, which often happens at the end of the day.

  67. Always look for two legs. Also, when the market tries to do something twice and fails both times, that is a reliable signal that it will likely succeed in doing the opposite.

  68. Never cherry-pick, because you will invariably pick enough rotten cherries to end up a loser. The good trades catch you by surprise and are easy to miss, and you are then left with the not-so-good trades and the bad trades. Either swing trade and look to take only the best two or three of the best setups of the day or scalp and take every valid setup. The latter, however, is the more difficult alternative and is only for people with very unusual personalities (even more unusual than the rest of us traders!).

  69. Finding winners is easy, but avoiding losers is hard. The key to success is avoiding the losers. There can be far more winners each day than losers, but a few losers can ruin your day, so learn to spot them in advance and avoid them. Most occur: in the middle of the range with weak setup bars, like small dojis with closes in the middle; when you are entering a possible reversal too early (remember, when in doubt, wait for the second entry); when you are in denial of a trend and think that it has gone too far so you start taking 1 or 3 minute reversal entries, which turn into great with-trend setups when they fail (as they invariably will); or, when a very credible, well-credentialed technical analyst from a top firm proclaims on TV that the bottom is in, and you then only see buy setups, which invariably fail because the expert in fact is an idiot who cannot trade (if he could, he would be trading and not proclaiming).

  70. If you are in a trade and it is not doing what you expected, should you get out? Look at the market and pretend that you are flat. If you think that you would put that trade on at this moment, stay in your position. If not, get out.

  71. Do not scalp when you should swing, and do not swing when you should scalp. Until you are consistently profitable, you should keep your trading as simple as possible and swing just one to three trades a day, and do not scalp. To scalp successfully, you usually have to risk about as much as you stand to gain, and that requires that you win on more than 60 percent of your trades. You cannot hope to do that until you are a consistently profitable trader.

  72. If you find that you frequently take swing trades, but quickly convert them to scalps, you will probably lose money. When you take a swing trade, you are willing to accept a lower probability of success, but to make money on a scalp, you need a very high probability of success. Similarly, if you take scalps, but consistently exit early with a profit that is smaller than your risk, you will lose money. If you cannot stop yourself from following your plan, simply rely on your bracket orders and walk away for about an hour after you enter.

  73. If you lost money last month, do not trade any reversals. If seven of the past 10 bars are mostly above the moving average, do not look to short. Instead, only look to buy. If seven of the past 10 bars are mostly below the moving average, do not look to buy. Instead, only look to short.

  74. Beginners should take only the best trades. It is difficult to watch a screen for two or three hours at a time and not place a trade, but this is the best way for beginners to make money.

  75. Discipline is the most important characteristic of winning traders. Trading is easy to understand, but difficult to do. It is very difficult to follow simple rules, and even occasional self-indulgences can mean the difference between success and failure. Anyone can be as mentally tough as Tiger Woods for one shot, but few can be that tough for an entire round, and then be that way for a round every day of their lives. Everyone knows what mental toughness and discipline are and can be mentally tough and disciplined in some activities every day, but few truly appreciate just how extreme and unrelenting you have to be to be a great trader. Develop the discipline to take only the best trades. If you cannot do it for an entire day, force yourself to do it for the first hour of every day, and as you increase your position size, you might find that this is all you need to be a successful trader.

  76. The second most important trait of great traders is the ability to do nothing for hours at a time. Don’t succumb to boredom and let it convince you that it’s been too long since the last trade.

  77. Work on increasing your position size rather than on the number of trades or the variety of setups that you use. You only need to make two points in the Eminis a day to do well (50 contracts at two points a day is seven figures a year).

  78. If you perfect the skills of trading, you can make more money than you could ever have imagined possible, and you will have the ability to live your dreams.

原文来自:风云居 | Less is more
本文链接: http://kangjian.net/blog/1667/


【翻译】上班族的收盘交易


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估计大多数正在学习我的课程的学员要么白天要上班,要么在忙着各种各样的生意,总是没时间。不管是你从事的工作、职业还是生意,都可能将你大多数自由支配的时间消耗殆尽,只给你在每天早晨或晚上留下一个小小的时间窗口,去看一眼市场行情。不幸的是,谁也帮不了你,周末也不开市交易。:(

在今天的课程中,我将提出一个解决方案,帮你在保证白天上班的前提下,好好利用其他你确实可以利用的时间,去分析市场并完成交易。与许多交易者的看法相反,你不需要一个小时一个小时地坐在行情图表前尝试捕捉每一次非常小的市场波动。这个交易方法每天最多花费你30分钟到1小时的时间,我更喜欢这么做。

白天的工作如何改善你的交易成绩

也许你在别的网站也读到过,外汇市场每天早晨在亚太市场开盘,在纽约时间下午5点收盘结束一天的交易。估计你也知道,无论在任何时间周期中最重要的价格就是收盘价(如果你不知道,现在请你记住)。这是因为无论是在1小时、4小时还是日间的交易期间内,收盘价为我们反映了多空双方谁赢得了胜利。

正因如此,外汇市场中来自纽约的日线收盘价为我们提供了一个非常重要的信息:多空双方谁干掉了谁。我最喜欢日线图,因为日线图汇总了一天当中发生的所有时间,并且在纽约市场收盘时告诉我们最后的结果。这时候,有可能正好产生了一个PriceAction的入场信号,这时候如果你掌握了PriceAction的交易方法,你需要去做的全部事情只是在每天收盘后分析一下行情图表,快速检索你关注的市场,看看有没有入场的信号出现。只要你知道怎么做,做完这些连30分钟都用不了。

你上班时真正错过了什么

很多交易者在邮件中问我,如果按照我说的主要关注4小时图或日线图,错过了15分钟或更小级别的建仓信号怎么办。我的答案是,“没错,也许你确实错过了一些小周期图中的入场机会,但这是好事。”你要清楚,在更小周期的行情图中会有更多的“噪音”和无意义的价格波动。所以,你真的认为如果你忽略掉这些小的交易周期你会错过什么大的行情?不,事实上你真正错过的只有盯盘的压力、过度交易和亏损,所有人都知道错过这些是好事。交易者的这种错过信号的感觉,仅仅是来自于贪婪、恐惧和时刻处于市场中的存在感需求。

如此,纽约市场收盘后的日线交易不仅仅更适合于你每天的日程和时间安排,同时还是一种非常好的交易方式。这么说看起来过于理想化了,但如果你能准确地建立正期望的交易,我保证这是真的。你在白天要从事的工作应该被看作是一件好事,而不是如同许多交易者错误认为的那样,把它看作是交易的麻烦或障碍。

你的日常工作是对过度交易和过度分析市场最好的缓解,它可以帮助你在市场中保持纪律性和忍耐,为你提供需要确立成功的交易心态才能获得的稳定的盈利(如果你破产了,你就不能在市场中生存了)。当你工作的时候,市场是离你渐行渐远的,这时候市场上发生的大多数事情都是无意义的和对你而言不必看到的,工作中的你正好可以避免被这些变化无常的日内价格波动所干扰。

收盘后的交易帮助你确立适当的交易心态

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事实求是地说,大多数的交易者的交易方法太多了,他们交易时的心态也往往会随之变得毫无章法、心烦意乱,这种毫不可取、事与愿违的循环使你做得越多,错得越远。

我是这个意思:你越是坐在行情图表前,搜索着一个个交易,想象着一个个开仓入市的理由,你就越有可能根据几率较低的交易信号入场。一旦你开始了一笔没什么把握的交易,你在本质上就像点燃了头脑中的一根导线,拉开了一个自我循环、不断成长的情绪化交易错误的水闸,事情会一直越变越糟,直到你决定用逻辑或清醒思考来有意识地介入中止这个趋势,经历过的人都知道,对很多人来说这非常难。

这就是收盘后进行交易能够帮助你的地方:如果你能每天只看两次盘,每次只有20到30分钟,大多数过度的交易或错误的交易心态都将被有效排除。如此,不仅仅由于关注更大的时间周期,从而获得了更有关联和重要的观察市场的视角,收盘后交易的习惯还能帮助你建立一个清晰、质朴的心理环境,这是长期交易获得成功的必要因素。

如何围绕你的工作去交易

让我们仔细看看一个应用收盘后交易方法完美地配合你每天的日程去分析市场、入场交易的交易流程范例。

记住,你每天只需要30分钟到1小时就可以有效地分析市场,参与交易。

上午8点 – 在你早晨起床、淋浴、吃早饭以后简要的检索一下市场(直到你完全醒来,彻底准备好了再做这些)。你要仔细看看在你睡觉的时候都发生了什么,看看你最关注的市场的价格行为对关键的支撑阻力位做出了什么反应,在趋势线上是否出现了Price Action的入场机会。如果市场上没有什么有意义的信息,在关键的支撑阻力位或趋势线也没有明确信号,那就关闭行情图表忙你的去吧。

上午9点到下午5点 – 工作、生意、健身及其他每天的事情。

晚上7点(或其他睡前的时间) – 下班回家吃过晚饭感到舒适后,你可以重复早晨做的事情,用20到30分钟的时间检索4小时图和日线图,仔细看看工作期间的市场价格变化。关键的支撑阻力位或趋势线上出现了什么明显的信号吗?如果纽约市场收盘时你还在工作时间,那就注意去看看日线图是如何收盘的,上一个晚上都发生了什么,确定你是在早晨看到这些(从你自己的时区角度)。再来一次,我们要做的和早晨一样,集中注意力在4小时图和日线图上看看你最关注的市场的价格变化,找找有效地Price Action信号。

这是一个你可以适用的轻松惬意的交易日。当然,上面说的实例是有前提的,你应该对如何用PriceAction去交易有深刻的认识,同时你的交易工具箱中必须有几个稳定的Price Action的交易范式。只要你拥有这些知识,你可以像我们刚刚讨论的那样,轻松地执行每天的交易流程。

更进一步……

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没有什么可隐瞒的,我是收盘后交易和大周期级别交易(4小时和日线)的坚定倡导者。我已经用收盘后的交易策略成功交易了超过12年,所以顺理成章地,我的交易课程和辅导关注利用收盘后的Price Action去分析和交易日线图。这个方法可以给你更高把握的入场信号和更多的自由时间,帮你获得完全澄明清晰的心态。学习过我的交易策略和交易哲学,我看到数以千计的痴迷交易以至于持续亏损流血到死的人们,变成了秉持低频日线交易原则、心态成熟的交易者。他们做出的改变不仅仅改善了他们的交易成绩,同时还令他们拥有了更多的时间、更少的压力和更加明晰的心态。如果你想接触专业的日线级别交易,请通过我的Price Action课程获取更多信息。

作者:Nial Fuller

原文链接:
End-of-Day Trading For People with Jobs

原文来自:风云居 | Less is more
本文链接: http://kangjian.net/blog/1441/